History of future: Ramesh Shrestha

Unknown at best

Predicting the future is inherently a risky proposition except for the astronomers who are able to predict celestial events such as lunar and solar eclipse long before astrophysics became an academic faculty. Beyond astronomy, based on current trends in the polarised geopolitics, economy, some of the destructive technology and human's greed, our future will most likely be not so pretty for the majority. The history of our future generations will be very different from what we have read about our ancestors and the world.

History is the permanent record of facts with responses to a simple question - what happened, how it happened, possible explanations on why it happened and what was done over a certain timeline on everything surrounding us. It helps us understand and link our present to our past and possibly help us in preparing for the future, especially not repeating the mistakes of the past, if we learn from history. There is one danger we must be cautious of is how history can be reinterpreted or misinterpreted based on a dominant opinion that is - alternate interpretation or reconstructing history with new narratives to suit certain opinions. We are witnessing examples of some such cruel intentions, if one cares to follow news and view regularly with an unbiased mind. At times there are complete mix up between history and mythology and at other times a mix up between science and religion while ignoring historical facts. One can be selective and take advantage of one but not the both. 

Our known past

Human beings have a great history with superb architecture as in China, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Japan, Peru, etc. There are depictions of human's ancient past in many museums such as the British museums with artifacts from around the world; Egyptian museums in Cairo displaying 170+k artifacts dating back more than five thousand years; there are even war museums displaying ancient weapons, museum of precious stones in Burma detailing their chemical compositions, rice museum in Manila explaining the history of rice over 2000 years, etc. We also have written history of empires, colonialism, different political dynasties, World Wars, never ending wars, evolutionary history of Homo sapiens, industrial revolution, agricultural revolution, technological discoveries, economic growth and population explosion. Since ancient times every generation has had their own history of joy and sorrows. History books are there for us to learn from our past, if we care to. In the 21^st century with the power of cyber technology impacting everything surrounding us how will our history be written in future? The most prominent fields could be biomedical science, cyber technology, societal changes influenced by technology, education system and war technology, among many.

Likely future history of biomedical science

Biomedical science with the assistance of AI will have many breakthroughs. The evolving role of AI in improving human health will be way beyond the organ transplant that started in 1954. In recent decades heart, liver, kidney, pancreas, lungs, bone marrow and retina transplant has become a normal routine in saving life with organs from a deceased person or donated by a close relative.

Since 2016 there is technology to detect genes during the embryonic stage people inherit from parents which make them prone to develop diseases such as diabetes, breast cancer and many more. With the release of the full human genome in 2022 scientists now have a complete genetic map, which helps them in detecting carrier genes and treating them as necessary. Such genes once detected in the embryos can be substituted by a non-carrier gene from another individual in the DNA sequence in embryos. Theoretically speaking besides correcting the 'disease carrier genes', geneticists could select the colour of eye or skin pigment or hair colour by replacing a gene from another individual. With advancing AI technology, humans may not be cloned in full like Dolly for ethical reasons, but people will be able to choose from a menu to construct the genetic map of an unborn child with genes from several individuals and produce a designer baby, designed in embryo.

The gene therapy in embryos was first conducted in China in 2018 by replacing a HIV carrier gene inherited from the HIV carrier male parent. A set of twin girls were born with an HIV immune gene. The doctor who performed this experiment was jailed for three years for unethical practice. The lesson is that it is possible to replace genes in embryos as one wish.

Another history making topic is ongoing research in understanding ageing processes in humans. A team of researchers have successfully identified a gene that controls ageing and created regenerative processes by removing toxic substances from the gene in roundworms. The scientists found the same process at work in human genes. The scientists say 'ageing, it seems, is on the way to becoming negotiable'. The process is not substituting genes but cleaning genes by removing toxic substances from around genes responsible for ageing (Current biology, Vol 6, issue 6, March 2023). It would mean therapeutic intervention by administering drugs to clean the gene which will slow down ageing process!

With advancing AI technology and human ambition, how long will this technology be locked up with ethical concern? There are ten protagonists in advancing the AI business model across all fields with the possibility of billions to be made. How long will it take for the national authorities to bend in agreeing to permit works for 'scientific research'. It will eventually be the reincarnation of the advanced form of Test Tube babies. It is a matter of time.

But there is a problem

Jeanne Calment, a French woman who lived for 122 years (passed away in 1997) showed the potential longevity of the current human genome. During every decade people are living longer with new drugs and treatment of chronic diseases. Based on currently available technology there will be as many as 451 million people older than 80 years by 2050. With AI technology and new treatments and by reducing the cost of gene therapy for chronic diseases people's life expectancy can be extended by a few more decades in the coming generation, which will mean adding millions more by 2050. Extending life expectancy by intervening during the embryonic stage to prevent chronic diseases and treating genes responsible for ageing is not like removing wrinkles with cosmetic surgery. The genes in our body have a sophisticated communication network, interlinking musculoskeletal functions, immune systems, cognitive function and so on, which is yet to be fully understood. Our societies may not be ready for this but scientists might give it a try anyways.

The greatest question is will our economy be able to handle the increasing dependency ratio. The application of AI and automation of manufacturing will be accelerated further to increase the profit. The job market including in public service and new job openings are scarce, except in the military. The new job creation will likely be limited to AI development, data analysis and maintenance of AI systems. AI will drive economic growth, create competition, develop products and markets but these will be limited to the top tier of upper and upper-middle class. The capitalists led market economy will not be able to distribute the benefits of AI generated economy to prosper everyone. With the increase in old age population, countries will face a social and economic nightmare if a proper pension system is not put in place. Will all countries be able to create a good economic base to achieve this in their system of governance?

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