Study projects aid cuts could lead to 9.4 million deaths by 2030 : Shared by John Gilmartin

Here's the CNN summary of Lancet's global health study.

John Gilmartin

Shuttered health clinic, Larga, Afghanistan

One Year On from Dismantling of USAID, Study Projects that Global Aid Cuts Could Lead to 9.4 Million Deaths by 2030

Lauren Kent

CNN, February 4, 2026

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Summary

One year after the Trump administration dismantled USAID, a new study published in The Lancet projects that continued global aid cuts could lead to at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030, including 2.5 million children under age 5. The peer-reviewed study by Barcelona Institute for Global Health analyzed data from 93 low- and middle-income countries, comparing projected deaths if aid cuts continue at recent rates versus maintaining 2023 funding levels. Researchers also modeled a severe defunding scenario that could result in 22.6 million additional deaths. The study found that from 2002-2021, global aid helped reduce child mortality by 39%, HIV/AIDS mortality by 70%, and malaria mortality by 56%. The aid cuts have already led to closures of HIV clinics in South Africa, termination of medical programs in Afghanistan, and ending of programs addressing malnutrition and preventable diseases. Several countries including Kenya, Rwanda and Nigeria have signed bilateral health agreements with the US under a new "America First Global Health Strategy" that focuses primarily on HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and infectious disease outbreaks.

Quotes

"Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available. Over the past two decades, it has saved an extraordinary number of lives and strengthened fragile welfare states and healthcare systems. Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years." - Davide Rasella, research professor at ISGlobal

"What we can say with confidence is these cuts are already killing people. The scale of that is still hard to fully compile, in part because the aid cuts themselves have made it harder to do so. But we see evidence that people are dying already. We see evidence that systems that we know save lives are breaking down." - Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International

"We should take the precise numbers with caution, but I think the overall conclusion is likely correct – people will die in large numbers." - Lee Crawfurd, senior research fellow at the Center for Global Development