Kul
Trump's Venezuela Oil Gambit: Analyzing the Strategic and Economic Realities
Author: Nury Vittachi
Publication: Social Media Post (LinkedIn/X)
Date: January 2025
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Summary
Nury Vittachi challenges two dominant narratives about Trump's Venezuela intervention: that the US has seized the world's largest oil reserve and cut off China's top energy source. According to Vittachi, China anticipated potential US action in Venezuela during summer 2024 and preemptively diversified its oil supply sources, dramatically increasing Venezuelan purchases while securing multiple alternative suppliers. Western oil analysts reportedly conclude this diversification means Trump's move will have "no effect" on China's economy.
Vittachi questions Venezuela's claim of having the world's largest proven oil reserves (300 billion barrels), suggesting the actual figure may be only one-third of that amount, around 100 billion barrels. He notes that Venezuela's oil is predominantly heavy, tar-like crude that is increasingly unwanted in US and international markets, citing Saudi Arabia's cancellation of a heavy oil processing plant as evidence of declining demand. This occurs amid a global transition toward clean energy, renewable resources, and modular nuclear power.
The analysis presents contrasting perspectives: from Trump's viewpoint, the operation demonstrates US military and intelligence capability to act unilaterally anywhere; from the international community's perspective, this represents the fundamental problem of disregarding international law and morality in foreign interventions.
Nury Vittachi challenges two dominant narratives about Trump's Venezuela intervention: that the US has seized the world's largest oil reserve and cut off China's top energy source. According to Vittachi, China anticipated potential US action in Venezuela during summer 2024 and preemptively diversified its oil supply sources, dramatically increasing Venezuelan purchases while securing multiple alternative suppliers. Western oil analysts reportedly conclude this diversification means Trump's move will have "no effect" on China's economy.
Vittachi questions Venezuela's claim of having the world's largest proven oil reserves (300 billion barrels), suggesting the actual figure may be only one-third of that amount, around 100 billion barrels. He notes that Venezuela's oil is predominantly heavy, tar-like crude that is increasingly unwanted in US and international markets, citing Saudi Arabia's cancellation of a heavy oil processing plant as evidence of declining demand. This occurs amid a global transition toward clean energy, renewable resources, and modular nuclear power.
The analysis presents contrasting perspectives: from Trump's viewpoint, the operation demonstrates US military and intelligence capability to act unilaterally anywhere; from the international community's perspective, this represents the fundamental problem of disregarding international law and morality in foreign interventions.
Quotes
"Trump's latest move will have 'no effect' on China's economy, western analysts say."
"From Trump's point of view, the Venezuela operation shows that the U.S. has LOTS of guns and helicopters and CIA agents and soldiers and stuff and can do anything it likes, whenever it likes, wherever it likes, without regard to morality or the rule of law. From the rest of the world's point of view, THAT is the problem."
Brilliant. Don't we all love that quote? I miss Tarzie; he was my favorite Buddha in a western temple.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to you all, friends
Sam
I miss Tarzie as well too! What a wonderful character! Pauline (O'Dea Knutsson(
DeleteIndeed Kul and Sam. TV was a brilliant political satirist in Sri Lanka before his tenure with UNICEF. His pen name was “fly by night”.
ReplyDeleteWish each of you and families a truly joyful New Year with Good Health and peace of mind.
Warm regards. Bertie