Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026
The Economist
Click here for the article
Summary
The editor of The World Ahead 2026 outlines ten major trends likely to shape the coming year, emphasizing the outsized influence of Donald Trump’s presidency on global affairs. He anticipates deep political division in the United States ahead of the 250th anniversary and midterm elections, continued erosion of the global rules-based order, and a mix of conflict and fragile peace in multiple regions. Europe faces competing demands on defence, growth, and deficits, while China sees openings to expand its influence. Economic risks loom—from tariffs to a potential bond-market crisis and the replacement of the Federal Reserve chair—alongside concerns about an AI-infrastructure bubble. Climate progress will be mixed, global sport will remain politicized, and new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will expand debates about enhancement and fairness.
1. America’s 250th — A year of sharply divided narratives about America’s past and future, culminating in pivotal midterm elections.
2. Geopolitical drift — The global rules-based order continues to decay as Trump pursues instinct-driven, transactional foreign policy.
3. War or peace? Yes. — Fragile peace in Gaza alongside ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar, plus rising “grey-zone” provocations by Russia and China.
4. Problems for Europe — Simultaneous pressures on defence spending, economic growth, deficits, and political stability, with austerity risking a hard-right surge.
5. China’s opportunity — Despite domestic troubles, China gains space to expand global influence as Trump’s “America First” policies alienate partners.
6. Economic worries — Tariffs, deficits, and the politicized replacement of the Fed chair raise the risk of a bond-market crisis.
7. Concerns over AI — Heavy AI-infrastructure spending may mask economic fragility, raising the prospect of a tech bubble and deepening job fears.
8. A mixed climate picture — Warming above 1.5°C is locked in, Trump opposes renewables, but emissions have likely peaked and clean tech grows in the global south.
9. Sporting values — Political tensions spill into the 2026 World Cup, while the “Enhanced Games” challenge traditional ideas of cheating.
10. Ozempic, but better — New, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs raise broad ethical debates about enhancement far beyond elite sports.
Quotes
“This is Donald Trump’s world—we’re all just living in it.”
“The old global rules-based order will drift and decay further.”
“As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.”
“Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables.”
“Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too.”
The Economist
Click here for the article
Summary
The editor of The World Ahead 2026 outlines ten major trends likely to shape the coming year, emphasizing the outsized influence of Donald Trump’s presidency on global affairs. He anticipates deep political division in the United States ahead of the 250th anniversary and midterm elections, continued erosion of the global rules-based order, and a mix of conflict and fragile peace in multiple regions. Europe faces competing demands on defence, growth, and deficits, while China sees openings to expand its influence. Economic risks loom—from tariffs to a potential bond-market crisis and the replacement of the Federal Reserve chair—alongside concerns about an AI-infrastructure bubble. Climate progress will be mixed, global sport will remain politicized, and new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will expand debates about enhancement and fairness.
1. America’s 250th — A year of sharply divided narratives about America’s past and future, culminating in pivotal midterm elections.
2. Geopolitical drift — The global rules-based order continues to decay as Trump pursues instinct-driven, transactional foreign policy.
3. War or peace? Yes. — Fragile peace in Gaza alongside ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar, plus rising “grey-zone” provocations by Russia and China.
4. Problems for Europe — Simultaneous pressures on defence spending, economic growth, deficits, and political stability, with austerity risking a hard-right surge.
5. China’s opportunity — Despite domestic troubles, China gains space to expand global influence as Trump’s “America First” policies alienate partners.
6. Economic worries — Tariffs, deficits, and the politicized replacement of the Fed chair raise the risk of a bond-market crisis.
7. Concerns over AI — Heavy AI-infrastructure spending may mask economic fragility, raising the prospect of a tech bubble and deepening job fears.
8. A mixed climate picture — Warming above 1.5°C is locked in, Trump opposes renewables, but emissions have likely peaked and clean tech grows in the global south.
9. Sporting values — Political tensions spill into the 2026 World Cup, while the “Enhanced Games” challenge traditional ideas of cheating.
10. Ozempic, but better — New, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs raise broad ethical debates about enhancement far beyond elite sports.
Quotes
“This is Donald Trump’s world—we’re all just living in it.”
“The old global rules-based order will drift and decay further.”
“As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.”
“Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables.”
“Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too.”
Under Point No. 3 list of provocations, Israel and USA might figure as first and second
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