The UN’s grim future : Shared by Alan Court

Given the high level segment of UNGA starts on Tuesday I thought this article might be appropriate to share with the network.

Alan

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The UN’s grim future -  Going rogue, decay or Trumpification

The Economist
Click here for the article: 

Summary
As the UN marks its 80th anniversary, it faces what many diplomats describe as its most severe crisis yet, fueled by Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. The United States has stopped paying dues, slashed funding for UN agencies by about a third, and withdrawn from bodies such as the WHO, UNESCO, and the Human Rights Council. 

The erosion of U.S. support risks opening space for China, Russia, and middle powers to shape the global order. Upcoming leadership changes, including the 2027 secretary-general succession, will determine whether the UN adapts or collapses into irrelevance.

Three scenarios loom:

• Going rogue: The UN turns adversarial toward America if U.S. arrears and hostility deepen, with Palestine as a potential flashpoint.

• Decay: The system fragments, underfunded and drifting, surviving mainly as a loose collection of technical agencies.

• Trumpification: The UN reinvents itself along Trumpian lines—fewer priorities, showy deals, less focus on rights and development.

Quotes

“UN agency budgets have shrunk on average by about a third. Food, medicines, help for refugees and other assistance to hundreds of millions of people is being eliminated.”

“An outright rupture with America could come in 2027 if its budget arrears reach two years’ worth of contributions, the level at which a country stands to lose its vote in the General Assembly.”

“The UN could also become a pick-and-mix outfit…with no real political heart to it but lots of single-purpose agencies.”

“The deal of the century for Mr Trump…would be to reform the membership and voting rights in the Security Council and reset the global power balance.”