The world has become a better place, historically speaking. I am not going to join the doomers. It took me quite some effort, but I will not give in to despair.
It is in the DNA of the UNICEF profession to see the glass half empty. Because we need a task that gives meaning to our existence. But there will be no apocalypse.
The current temporary pandemic aside, this is the greatest time in history to be alive.
Two hundred years ago, 85 percent of the world population lived in extreme poverty. Today only 9 percent live in extreme poverty. The average life expectancy around the world has doubled in the same period, to 72. The biggest progress was made in child survival.
To correct your misconceptions about the state of world affairs, check upgrade your worldview on Hans Rösling’s Gapminder. Bad news, catastrophes, terrorist attacks, wars and famines tend to make a headline, good news are just statistics.
Rest assured: I am neither in denial, nor do I follow conspiracy theories. I know that time is running out, and efforts need to dramatically increase to avert the climate catastrophe. But environmental consciousness did hardly exist before 1972 and the Club of Rome. The price of solar panels has dropped to 1% of what it was in 1980. And never before did mankind develop a vaccine as fast as it did for Covid19. I am not saying that there will be engineering solutions for everything. We need to gear up, we need to change, and we will.
I looked into my crystal ball to get a glimpse of 2050:
Today’s 25- year-olds will be 54 years old. They will constitute the establishment and take decisions for countries and corporations. Today’s new-borns will be the protesters of tomorrow.
Material poverty will almost be eradicated.
The environmental challenges are here to stay. We have reached a level of awareness, where everyone knows. Our young generation must be courageous enough and build up public pressure until the profiteers and hangers-on are voted out.
Military might will continue to be advertised by money-grubbing lobbyists, wasting incalculable resources, but – thanks to social media - nations will have no appetite for war. Whatever might be worth invading, will have been invaded by 2050, though nobody really wants to administer foreign lands.
Large conglomerates will compete to extend their economic influence and continue to take countries hostage. Countries that can create and enforce regulatory mechanisms will be better off.
Cultural characteristics will gradually disappear and McDonalds will sell more fried rice and curries than burgers.
Our children will increasingly live in a virtual world. As you read this, you are online and have already escaped reality. Access to gadgets will be nearly universal, and the biggest divide will be between those who are grounded with both feet in reality and those who are lost in cyberspace, are conspiring around a new theory, and are living in a parallel dimension.
The disassociation from reality and a global view of the world will be the greatest risk to future generations. Ever more people will also lose confidence in their elected governments. Religious fanatics, supremacists and terrorists will continue to murder for proof of their weird theories. Most people will not be able to follow scientific advances, or simply take them for granted. The divide is no longer between countries or tribes; there is a new culture war between those who have to work for a living and those who live off the financial markets; between those who contribute and those who think that an electric car is their birth right; between those who value their local and the global community and work for its survival and welfare, and those who give a damn for the sake of their own escapism.
By 2050, UNICEF will neither be required to feed children nor bore wells. The challenge is to build a world that embraces fundamental and immovable values that keep human kind together as a whole, and to prevent babies of today becoming the maniacs or extremists of tomorrow.
Another app for young people will not do the trick.
This article is part of the XUNICEF News and Views Quarterly Newsletter, December 2021.
Thanks Detlef. You give me hope despite all what I see around me.
ReplyDelete