by Tom McDermott
A wanderer is man from his birth.
He was born in a ship
On the breast of the river of Time; ….
Haply, the river of Time—
As it grows, ....
May acquire, if not the calm
Of its early mountainous shore,
Yet a solemn peace of its own.
Matthew Arnold, ‘The Future’
The future does not exist - at least not yet
Of its early mountainous shore,
Yet a solemn peace of its own.
Matthew Arnold, ‘The Future’
The future does not exist - at least not yet
Thinking about, let alone writing, about the future is not easy. The hard fact of age is that for many of us the coming 25 years are merely the leading edge of a future many of us will not see. It is instead a future for our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Only through their ‘present’ does it become our future.
Telling the story of our pasts is easier - we can remember - or pretend to remember, each in our own ways - real people, places and events, and weave them into the stories we tell of why we are who we are.
The story of our future, on the other hand, is a much harder story to tell. Either we aim too high and paint a rosy picture of a future saved by technological and medical advances, or too low and draw a grim picture in which humankind cannot survive. In these years of pandemic, climate change, institutional failure, and civil strife, we more often take the 'too low' route and imagine a dark world ahead for future generations.
Yet, reality likely lies somewhere between the 'too high' and the 'too low' scenarios. Just where the ‘vector of reality’ may lie is largely up to us and our children to determine. We may not be able to determine the world’s fate, but we can certainly influence it.
Look back to look forward
One way to put the future 25 years into context is to consider the past 25 years. Take yourself back to 11 December 1996. Where were you living? What was your work? Now, ask yourself how at that point you would have described the coming 25 years for children.
To help your thinking, recall some of these events of the years from 1996 to 2000. Kofi Anan had just been elected Secretary-General. The war in Bosnia had ended, but the war next door in Kosovo was about to break. The war in Sri Lanka was worsening. Israeli forces had invaded and were occupying much of Lebanon. The UK had just handed Hong Kong back to China. Bill Clinton had just been reelected US President. The Taliban had just captured Kandahar. Y2K would soon panic many over predictions of global collapse that never arrived.
On the positive side, back then would you have foreseen that deaths of children would fall so rapidly across the world? Or that maternal deaths would decline so sharply? Or that school enrollment, attendance and retention improve so dramatically? Or the millions of people who would rise out of poverty in the coming 25 years? Or that our governments would agree to tackle (or try to tackle) the MDGs, SDGs, along new commitments on women's rights and social development?
On the negative side, would you have predicted the attacks of 9/11 and the shadows that day would cast for years to come? Another war in Iraq? The return of the Taliban? ISIS and Boko Haram. A rapid rise in global temperature? The rise of populist anti-democratic regimes? Growing civil, ethnic, and religious strife, not just in developing countries, but also in supposedly developed and democratic countries? What about COVID?
All of which is to say that we are not fortune tellers. Even without a crystal ball, however, we can sketch out a few major the parameters within which the coming 25 years are likely to play out for children, governments and agencies like UNICEF.
We could consider many such parameters, but in this article I want to mention just three: disease, environment, and population. I pose here a series of questions to which I do not have answers - rather just some questions worth pondering when we ask about a future for children.
1. Disease, pandemic(s), and their aftermath
Just as the events of September 11, 2001 and those that followed set the political, military, and economic environment of the past 20 years, the current pandemic and whatever will follow is likely to dominate our thinking for many years to come. No one knows how or when the current pandemic will end or whether others will follow soon behind. What we do know is that there will be no quick return to ‘normal’.
Will concern about disease shift back to children rather than adults?
So far, most concern about the pandemic has centered on adults, particularly older adults. This has begun to change as children and young people are increasingly its victims. As more and more children go without vaccination against the usual childhood diseases and with nearly all children unvaccinated against COVID, will children again be seen not just as those most affected by disease, but also as the reservoirs in which disease threats to society persist? Will the millions of children who missed years of schooling and / or were forced into early employment become major factors determining their futures, as well as the shape of society?
Can technological progress make up for continued failings of our society and of human nature in dealing with the threats of disease?
So far, most concern about the pandemic has centered on adults, particularly older adults. This has begun to change as children and young people are increasingly its victims. As more and more children go without vaccination against the usual childhood diseases and with nearly all children unvaccinated against COVID, will children again be seen not just as those most affected by disease, but also as the reservoirs in which disease threats to society persist? Will the millions of children who missed years of schooling and / or were forced into early employment become major factors determining their futures, as well as the shape of society?
Can technological progress make up for continued failings of our society and of human nature in dealing with the threats of disease?
Success or failure in tackling the problems presented by the pandemic may well define humanity’s future well beyond 2050. On the positive side, consider the rapid development of mRNA vaccines, new drugs, and new treatments have managed to meet the early challenges of the pandemic. On the negative side, consider the failure of governments and international agencies to ensure easy access for all to health services. Consider also the failure to convince the general public to take basic steps - vaccination, masks, hygiene - in order to protect public health.
Even if our technology can meet new challenges, can we as individuals or as a society do what is needed to protect ourselves and others?
A Damaged Environment
Whether or not any of the promises made at COP26 are realized, global temperatures are likely to rise by at least 1.5 degrees by 2040. If, as some projections suggest, carbon emissions double, the temperature will increase by around 2.4 degrees. Can future generations adapt to such a world?
Food
We tend to think of climate change in terms of rising sea levels, disappearing ice caps, and increasing severity of storms and fires. More important for future generations is the impact on food and migration. Global food production is expected to fall by some 4% per decade, or by around 12% by 2050. There are other obvious challenges presented by climate change - reduced flows of fresh water, drying of shallow aquifers, competition and conflict over access to rivers and water for irrigation, industrial production, and most importantly - drinking water.
Aside from the quantity of food, will food quality and variety continue to decline?
Given an increase in both global population, loss of arable land and urbanization, will food production become increasingly distant from (and expensive for) those who need it?
Will declines in food quality, along with reduced physical activity, lead more and more children to become obese, even while poorly nourished?
Will pollution of air, water, and food become even greater threats to child health?
Can future generations limit further damage while at the same time adapting to the damage already done?
Population
Demographers tell us that global population growth is already slowing, but that growth of the world's population will not level off until around 2100. By 2050 the world’s population is likely to be around 9.7 billion, including 2.5 billion children. This represents an increase of at least 600 million in the numbers of children over today's 1.9 billion. If governments and international organizations like UNICEF are already struggling to serve today’s children, how well they will provide for this much larger number of children?
Africa will face the greatest challenges
In terms of geography we know that most of the world's population growth will be in Africa, where 25% of the world’s population will live by 2050 (vs. 15% today). In numbers Africa’s population will nearly double - from 1.34 billion today to 2.5 billion in 2050. Nigeria alone will grow by 176% and Kenya by 138%. Can governments in Africa meet the needs of such huge populations. Will they be able to meet the demands for food, water, shelter, education and health care? Can the rest of the world help?
Much of that growth will be in cities. Africa’s urban population is expected to triple to 1.34 billion. Lagos, for instance, is expected to grow from 14.4 million today to some 33 million in 2050. Can African agriculture and infrastructure service such enormous cities?
Children are likely to become an even greater proportion of Africa’s population. Around one billion of Africa’s 2050 population will be children under age 15. Will education and health services be able to cope?
Graça Machel put it this way - “Even though our youth have the potential to transform Africa, if neglected, they could exacerbate poverty and inequality while threatening peace, security and prosperity”.
But challenges will persist elsewhere, too.
Will the challenges of continued growth in countries with already huge populations drive governments to become increasingly authoritarian? Will attempts to meet the needs of such populations lead to further damage to global climate and their own futures?
Old vs. Young
Demographers expect a major shift between young and old in the near future. The population over age 65 will triple from 531 million today to over 1.5 billion in 2050, making the world’s elder population a larger proportion of the population than children in most countries.
Given the political power older populations often hold in their countries, will the growing proportion of elderly drive policy decisions by governments in favor of elders over children?
In many countries the proportion of employed workers is expected to decline, leaving fewer wage earners to support growing numbers of dependents. Will a smaller number of workers be able or willing to pay for the social safety nets needed by both the elderly and children?
Interested in more charts showing projections of global population? See the IMF's "Coming of Age" and Pew's "10 Projections for the Global Population in 2050". On the dilemma of shrinking food production amid a growing pulsation, see FAO's The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challenges
And all those other challenges
We could go on in considering the many other changes children will face in the coming 25 years: conflicts grown out of ethnic, linguistic and religious tensions; dysfunctional governments, distrust of institutions (including international agencies), growing nationalism, rising authoritarianism, urban / rural struggles, weakened family bonds, and the decline of moral and religious traditions, but let me stop here.
We could go on in considering the many other changes children will face in the coming 25 years: conflicts grown out of ethnic, linguistic and religious tensions; dysfunctional governments, distrust of institutions (including international agencies), growing nationalism, rising authoritarianism, urban / rural struggles, weakened family bonds, and the decline of moral and religious traditions, but let me stop here.
Many questions but no answers. Is there room for hope?
Those who created UNICEF on 11 December 1946, and those who led UNICEF through its early years, had passed through war and devastation. They had lived through the pandemic of 1918, two world wars, colonialism and fascism. Yet they were filled with hope and confidence. Over the years they found their way.
25 years ago on 11 December 1969, we faced similar unanswered questions and challenges for which there was no ready solution. Yet, we found our way. Then as fifty years earlier, the world faced great threats. We faced them too. Like those before us, we found our way.
Our children and our children's children will face questions we cannot predict, let alone answer. Yet, we can be confident that they will find most of the answers they need. Like us, and those who went before us, our children's children will find their way. They will not just survive. They will thrive.
This article is part of the XUNICEF News and Views Quarterly Newsletter, December 2021.
Comments
Post a Comment
If you are a member of XUNICEF, you can comment directly on a post. Or, send your comments to us at xunicef.news.views@gmail.com and we will publish them for you.