Today in Focus - Lebanon's Growing Crisis for Children : Tom McDermott

Israel Orders Mass Evacuation South of Litani — And May Never Allow Return

Human Rights Watch / IRC / AFP / WHO / UNICEF — March 4–5, 2026

Summary

While the world's attention is focused this week on the war in Iran and the Persian Gulf, much of the crisis for children has shifted to Lebanon — and it may be more lasting than it first appears.

As Israel escalated its military campaign in Lebanon this week — launched in the context of the broader US-Israeli war against Iran — it issued sweeping evacuation orders covering all of southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, affecting an estimated 250,000 people across more than 150 villages and towns. It also carried out airstrikes in Beirut and in other parts of the country. But what is emerging from Israeli military statements and actions on the ground is more than a temporary military operation. It looks increasingly like a strategy to permanently depopulate and occupy southern Lebanon — with catastrophic long-term implications for children and families.

©Institute for the Study of War 4 March

Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs reported that at least 58,000 people had already been displaced as of Tuesday, including an estimated 16,000 children — a figure now rising sharply. The IRC reported today that more than 84,000 people are registered in collective shelters across Lebanon, with numbers doubling within just 24 hours. Many more are sleeping in cars along roadsides or in the open. One family of eight spent three days sleeping in a public garden in the ancient port city of Tyre before joining hours-long convoys heading north.

©NY Times

©Institute for the Study of War 3 March 2026

A Strategy of Permanent Depopulation?

Israel simultaneously announced it was moving to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with Defence Minister Israel Katz authorizing troops to "advance and hold additional dominant terrain" — a strategy that extends an occupation Israel has maintained, in five positions along the Blue Line, since its partial withdrawal in February 2025. Israeli forces have published a map naming specific border villages as permanent forbidden zones and warned that anyone moving south of the line is in danger. Hours after issuing initial evacuation orders, an Israeli military spokesperson called on those who had fled not to return — and repeated that call the following day.

Taken together — the blanket evacuation orders, the explicit warnings against return, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and the ground advance to seize "dominant terrain" — these actions raise a deeply troubling question: is Israel planning to allow the displaced population of southern Lebanon to go home at all? 

Amnesty International's satellite analysis documented that over 70% of buildings in several Tyre district municipalities — including Yarin, Dhayra, and Boustane — were already destroyed during the 2024 conflict. With reconstruction equipment also targeted by Israeli strikes, and entire communities now reduced to rubble, the physical conditions for return barely exist. If Israel's occupation of the south becomes de facto permanent, the displacement of 250,000 people — including tens of thousands of children — would not be a temporary crisis. It would be a permanent one.

Schools Converted to Shelters — A Double Loss for Children

The mass displacement has triggered an acute education crisis. Schools across Beirut and other northern cities have been closed and converted into emergency shelters for the newly displaced.  This disruption of education in Lebanon now enters its sixth consecutive year. Schoolchildren in Beirut could not attend classes this week because the buildings where they study are now housing families who fled the south. 

WHO Personnel Killed

In the Tyre district, Israeli forces carried out a "double-tap" airstrike that killed three WHO paramedics and injured six others while they were assisting people wounded in an earlier strike. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the attack and called on all parties to protect health workers, facilities, and patients.

UNICEF Field Teams

UNICEF deployed rapid response teams both north and south of the Litani River to assess needs and deliver emergency supplies, including essential medicines to displacement shelters and hospitals. UNICEF reported that seven children were killed and 38 injured in the 24 hours ending March 4, citing Lebanese authority figures, as airstrikes struck multiple areas including the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Syrian Refugees — Displaced for the Second Time

Among those now sheltering in schools, public buildings, and cars in Lebanon's north are tens of thousands of Syrian refugees who came to Lebanon fleeing conflict in their own country, rebuilt fragile lives, and are now being displaced all over again. Lebanon hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees — the highest refugee-to-population ratio in the world. Many had not recovered economically from the 2024 war, with nine out of ten Syrian refugee households already requiring humanitarian assistance before this latest escalation.

Some Syrian families are attempting to cross back into Syria — a country itself only recently emerged from years of civil war — because there is nowhere else to go. UNHCR reported that border crossings from Lebanon into Syria jumped to over 10,600 on a single day this week, more than double the recent daily average during Ramadan. Families described being turned away at the border, sleeping in vehicles beside their belongings, with children in tow. The IRC noted that among the newly displaced are Syrian refugee families "who had already fled conflict once and rebuilt fragile lives in Lebanon, only to now be forced to flee again." If Israel's occupation of the south proves permanent, these families face a grim choice: remain indefinitely crowded into a northern Lebanon that lacks the capacity to absorb them, or attempt to return to a Syria that remains fragile and underfunded.

A Humanitarian System Already Stretched to Breaking

Human Rights Watch warned today that Israel's blanket evacuation order raises serious risks of violations of the laws of war. HRW noted that broad warnings unrelated to imminent attacks cannot be considered "effective" advance warning under international humanitarian law, and may instead constitute prohibited acts intended to spread terror among civilians. Civilians who remain after such an order do not lose their protected status and may not be targeted for failing to leave.

The IRC warned today that the scale and pace of displacement is likely to quickly outpace available resources. Rental prices in Beirut are already rising. Competition for livelihoods is intensifying. Health, water, electricity, and education services are being stretched further. Without rapid international support, the IRC warned, the humanitarian situation risks deteriorating significantly in the days and weeks ahead — and that is before accounting for the possibility that this displacement does not end.

Quotes:

"How are older people, the sick, and people with disabilities going to be able to evacuate immediately? And how will their safety be guaranteed as they leave?" — Ramzi Kaiss, Lebanon Researcher, Human Rights Watch

"Our team is hearing cases of children across Lebanon sleeping in cars, on cold pavements, and in partially damaged classrooms with cracks in the walls, while parents are sitting on the side of the streets crying, exhausted from little sleep after being unable to get into proper shelters with their children." — Save the Children spokesperson, quoted by Common Dreams

"Warring parties must abide by international humanitarian law and protect health workers, facilities and patients." — WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, on the killing of three WHO paramedics in the Tyre district

"UNICEF urgently calls for immediate de-escalation and for all parties to uphold their obligations to protect children wherever they are. Children should never be targets." — UNICEF spokesperson, UN Geneva Press Briefing, March 5, 2026

"Despite the volatile security situation, the IRC and our partners are mobilizing to respond to the urgent needs of displaced and conflict-affected families. Rental prices are rising, competition for livelihoods is increasing, and essential services such as health care, water, electricity and education are being stretched even further." — Magda Rossmann, IRC Lebanon Country Director, IRC, March 5, 2026

Sources

Human Rights Watch, March 5, 2026: Click here for the article
IRC Lebanon — Mounting Humanitarian Needs, March 5, 2026: Click here for the article
UNICEF USA — Children Caught in Crisis in Middle East: Click here for the article
The National — Israel orders wave of strikes, 250,000 to evacuate: Click here for the article
Common Dreams — Israel gives mass expulsion order: Click here for the article
Gulf News — Israel expands ground operations, moves to create buffer zone: Click here for the article
UNHCR — Mobilizing across region as Middle East crisis escalates: Click here for the article
UN Geneva Press Briefing, March 5, 2026: Click here for the article
UNICEF Lebanon field teams: [URL to be added]