He says, "Countries should strive for a cooperative world order of values-based realism, respecting both the rule of law and cultural and political differences.
"The aim of values-based realism is to find a balance between values and interests in a way that prioritizes principles but recognizes the limits of a state's power when the interests of peace, stability, and security are at stake.
"Values-based realism begins with dignified behavior, with respect for the views of others and an understanding of differences".
Stubb distinguishes between multilateralism and multipolarity.
"Without a strong multilateral system, all diplomacy becomes transactional. A multilateral world makes the common good a self-interest. A multipolar world runs simply on self-interest", where the big powers are dominant.
Comparing the Yalta and the Helsinki processes, Stubb says, "Yalta was multipolar in its outcomes, and Helsinki was multilateral. Now the world faces a choice, and I believe Helsinki offers the right way forward. The choices we all make in the next decade will define the world order for the twenty-first century".
"Without a strong multilateral system, diplomacy becomes transactional". He sees the UN, WTO, IMF & WB as central to multilateralism. But says these institutions need to be restructured to reflect his "value-based realism".
He calls for a reform of the UN in which "no single state should have veto power in the Security Council. The veto was necessary in the aftermath of World War II, but in today's world it has incapacitated the Security Council. ...if a permanent or rotating member of the Security Council violates the UN Charter, its membership in the UN should be suspended".
Stubb divides the current world into 3 blocs - the Global West (led by the US and including the WEOG countries), the Global East led by China and including Russia, North Korea, Iran , etc.), and the Global South.
I tend to disagree with Stubb, as I think China sees itself as a leader of the Global South, not some imaginary Global East.
Interestingly, Stubb argues that "the global South will decide the direction of the new world order. As the West and the East pull in different directions, the South has the swing vote".
Kul
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The West's Last Chance: How to Build a New Global Order Before It's Too Late
Author: Alexander Stubb
Publication: Foreign Affairs
Date: January/February 2026 (Published December 2, 2025)
Click here for the article (No Paywall, accessible for free):
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/wests-last-chance
Summary:
Finnish President Alexander Stubb argues that the post-Cold War liberal international order is ending, replaced by a multipolar competition among three power blocs: the global West (50 democratic states led by the US), the global East (25 states led by China), and the global South (125 developing nations).
He warns the next 5-10 years will determine global order for decades, as multilateral cooperation gives way to transactional diplomacy. Stubb proposes "values-based realism" as the path forward, advocating for urgent UN Security Council reform including adding permanent seats for Africa, Latin America, and Asia, eliminating veto power, and suspending members who violate the UN Charter.
He argues the global South holds the swing vote in determining whether the world moves toward cooperation or further fragmentation, and that Western countries must share power and demonstrate consistency rather than double standards to maintain influence.
Without reform of institutions like the UN, WTO, IMF, and World Bank to reflect the growing power of middle powers such as Brazil, India, and Nigeria, Stubb warns the system will crumble into either persistent disorder or outright chaos.
Quotes:
"We live in a new world of disorder. The liberal, rules-based order that arose after the end of World War II is now dying."
"This is the last chance for Western countries to convince the rest of the world that they are capable of dialogue rather than monologue, consistency rather than double standards, and cooperation rather than domination."
"The global West and the global East are fighting for the hearts and minds of the global South. The reason is simple: they understand that the global South will decide the direction of the new world order."
"Values-based realism will give the West enough room to navigate this new age of international relations."
Alexander Stubb’s intervention is one of the clearest and most constructive contributions to the debate about global order that I have seen from any Western leader in years. At a moment when the democratic world often seems reactive, fragmented, or unsure of its own narrative, Stubb offers a principled, credible, and outward-looking vision grounded in geopolitical experience.
ReplyDeleteFew leaders are better placed to speak about the limits of idealism or the dangers of naïveté than the president of a country that has lived for decades in the shadow of an unpredictable Russia. Finland’s history has forced it to marry values with hard-headed realism, and Stubb’s “values-based realism” reflects that blend. It is neither a return to moral grandstanding nor a resignation to great-power cynicism. It is an attempt to find a workable middle path.
His emphasis on strengthening multilateralism, rather than slipping further into a transactional, multipolar world, is both timely and necessary. Institutions such as the UN, WTO, IMF, and World Bank may be imperfect, but Stubb is right that they remain essential scaffolding for any cooperative order. His call for reform, especially of the UN Security Council, may be ambitious, but it sets a direction of travel that the democratic world has been reluctant to articulate.
Perhaps most importantly, Stubb recognises that the future will not be decided by the West and its rivals alone. His insistence that the Global South will be the decisive force in shaping the 21st-century system shows a level of humility and strategic clarity often missing in Western commentary.
One may debate the details of his three-bloc model or his characterisation of China, but those disagreements do not diminish the value of his contribution. He has offered a serious, principled, and credible starting point for rebuilding an international order that is fraying at the seams.
At a time when many Western leaders are consumed by domestic crises or short-term political pressures, Stubb’s framework stands out. It is a reminder that strategic thinking that is solidly grounded in experience, values, and an understanding of power is still possible. And for the democratic West, that is a welcome and much-needed step forward.