In these U.S. groups, deaths now exceed births. What's happening? : Shared by John Gilmartin

Most old people are white,
Most young people are not.

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The United States is not far from the point where, each winter, deaths will regularly edge out births
https://wapo.st/3M1GKCU

In these U.S. groups, deaths now exceed births. What's happening?

Andrew Van Dam

The Washington Post

November 24, 2025

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Summary

The United States is approaching a demographic turning point where deaths will regularly exceed births each winter, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting this crossover to occur by 2033, seven years earlier than previously estimated. 

For White Americans, this shift already occurred in 2016 when deaths of White adults surpassed births by White mothers, with the gap continuing to widen. Native Americans and Black Americans briefly experienced deaths exceeding births during the COVID-19 pandemic, but births have since recovered to exceed deaths. 

The demographic differences are driven by age distribution, with the typical White American having lived 44 years as of 2023, compared with 39 for Asian Americans, 36 and 35 for Black and Native Americans, 31 for Hispanic Americans, and 27 for those of other or multiple races. 

According to CDC data, U.S. births dropped 10% between 2010 and 2023 while deaths rose 25%. Within the White population specifically, births declined 17% while deaths rose 17% during this period. University of New Hampshire demographer Ken Johnson attributes the trend not just to an aging population reducing the number of potential parents, but primarily to people having fewer children overall, noting that delayed births from the post-recession period are not materializing as expected. The CBO projects annual deaths will exceed births after 2032, making immigration the sole source of population growth beyond that point.

Quotes

"At first, I thought the decline in births early in the postrecession period were just delayed births. I don't think that anymore." - Ken Johnson, University of New Hampshire demographer

"Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself." - Congressional Budget Office report