Trump's Gaza Plan and Likely 'Deal-breakers' : Shared by Tom McDermott

Trump's Gaza Peace Plan

Below is a summary of 21 points.  For the full text of the White House announcement click here.  Note that Israeli media are referring instead to a "20 point" plan and the reason for the difference is not clear.

Readers should also see the likely “deal-breakers” below the 21 points, drawn from the New York Times and other sources in the immediate aftermath of the plan’s release.

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   Trump Gaza Peace Plan – 21 Points

   1. Terror-Free Gaza: Gaza will be a de-radicalized, terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

   2. Redevelopment for Gazans: Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of its people, who have suffered more than enough.

   3. Immediate Cease-fire: If both sides agree, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed line to prepare for a hostage release. All military operations will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until withdrawal conditions are met.

   4. Hostage Release (72 hours): Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.

   5. Prisoner Exchange: After hostage release, Israel will release 250 life-sentence prisoners and 1,700 Gazans detained since Oct. 7, 2023, including all women and children. For every Israeli hostage’s remains returned, Israel will release 15 deceased Gazans’ remains.

   6. Hamas Amnesty: Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence and decommission weapons will receive amnesty. Those wishing to leave Gaza will be given safe passage to receiving countries.

   7. Humanitarian Aid: Upon acceptance, full aid will be sent into Gaza, consistent with the Jan. 19, 2025 agreement, covering infrastructure, hospitals, bakeries, rubble removal, and road clearing.

   8. Aid Distribution Mechanism: Distribution will be handled by the UN, Red Crescent, and other neutral institutions. Rafah crossing will follow the Jan. 19, 2025 mechanism.

   9. Transitional Governance: Gaza will be governed by a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee running day-to-day services.

   10. Board of Peace Oversight: The committee will be overseen by a new “Board of Peace,” chaired by Donald J. Trump, with other leaders including Tony Blair.

   11. Transition to PA Rule: The Board will manage Gaza until the Palestinian Authority completes reforms (per Trump’s 2020 plan and the Saudi-French proposal) and can securely retake control.

   12. Trump Economic Development Plan: A panel of experts will design a development program to rebuild Gaza, modeled on successful modern cities of the Middle East.

   13. Special Economic Zone: Gaza will establish a special economic zone with preferential tariff and access rates negotiated with participating countries.

   14. Freedom of Movement: No one will be forced to leave Gaza; those who wish to leave may freely do so and freely return. Residents will be encouraged to stay and build a better Gaza.

   15. Hamas Exclusion from Governance: Hamas and other factions will have no role in Gaza governance, directly or indirectly.

   16. Demilitarization: All tunnels, weapons, and militant infrastructure will be destroyed and not rebuilt. Weapons will be permanently decommissioned under independent monitoring, supported by a buy-back and reintegration program.

   17. Regional Guarantees: Regional partners will guarantee Hamas and factions comply with obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat.

   18. International Stabilization Force (ISF): The U.S., Arab, and international partners will deploy an ISF to support vetted Palestinian police, consult with Jordan and Egypt, secure borders, prevent arms smuggling, and enable goods flow.

   19. IDF Withdrawal: Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As ISF secures Gaza, the IDF will progressively withdraw, handing territory to ISF until complete withdrawal, except for a temporary security perimeter.

   20. If Hamas Rejects: If Hamas delays or rejects, aid and redevelopment will proceed in “terror-free areas” handed over from IDF to ISF.

   21. Long-Term Political Horizon: Interfaith dialogue will promote peaceful coexistence. With PA reforms and Gaza redevelopment, conditions may allow a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood. The U.S. will establish dialogue between Israel and Palestinians toward a political horizon of peaceful coexistence.

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   Editor’s Note: This summary reflects the analysis of The New York Times in the immediate moments after the Trump–Netanyahu plan was announced. We will hear much more in the next day or two from other sources — and, of course, from Hamas itself.

   Deal-Breakers in the Trump–Netanyahu Gaza Plan

   Hamas Rejections

   • Exclusion from power – Hamas barred from any role in Gaza governance.

   • Forced disarmament – Fighters must decommission weapons to receive amnesty.

   • Rapid hostage release – All hostages, alive and deceased, to be returned within 72 hours, eliminating Hamas’s key bargaining chip.

   • Trump-chaired “Board of Peace” – Gaza governance overseen by Trump and foreign appointees like Tony Blair.

   • Israeli buffer zone – Israel to maintain a sizable security zone inside Gaza “for the foreseeable future.”

   • No real statehood path – Palestinian statehood referenced only as a vague “aspiration,” not a commitment.

   Structural Problems Beyond Hamas

   • International force uncertainty – No clarity on which countries would provide troops or how an International Stabilization Force would function.

   • Fragile aid prospects – Donors may hesitate to fund reconstruction under Trump’s chairmanship, especially with the UN sidelined.

   • Absence of UN role – The UN is excluded, undercutting legitimacy and coordination for humanitarian operations.

   • One-sided compliance test – Netanyahu insisted Israel alone would determine whether Hamas was meeting obligations.

   • Heavy U.S. burden – Analysts warn the plan requires extraordinary U.S. involvement and monitoring, making it fragile and highly personal to Trump.

   • Israeli political volatility – While right-wing factions initially voiced support, political backing could fracture quickly once implementation begins, especially if compromises on security or territory are required.

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