UNRWA Strategic Assessment : UN Secretary-General's Strategic Assessment Team

Report shared by Robert Cohen

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Summary
This exhaustive strategic assessment of UNRWA, commissioned under the UN80 initiative, warns that the agency faces existential threats from political pressure, funding collapse, and operational obstruction—primarily by Israel.

UNRWA, created in 1949 as a temporary measure, now serves as the de facto public service provider for millions of Palestine refugees in five fields of operation. Despite operating under extreme duress—including over 300 staff deaths in Gaza and legislative efforts by Israel to dismantle its presence—UNRWA remains indispensable for refugee welfare, regional stability, and as a symbol of the international commitment to Palestine refugee rights.

The report outlines four future scenarios: (1) inaction and collapse; (2) service reductions and transfers; (3) creation of an Executive Board to institutionalize collective responsibility; and (4) retention of UNRWA’s rights-based core while gradually transferring service delivery to host states and the Palestinian Authority. The authors favor scenario four but stress that under any outcome, UNRWA’s role as custodian of refugee identity and rights must continue. The report is also a sharp indictment of Israeli actions post-October 2023, documenting widespread violations of UN privileges and international law.

Quotes

• “UNRWA holds profound political resonance as the last institutional embodiment of the international community’s commitment to the rights of Palestine refugees.”

• “The Agency faces the possibility of disorderly collapse.”

• “Israel’s targeting of UNRWA has severely undermined the Agency’s ability to operate with the protections afforded under international law.”

• “This is the worst possible moment for Member States to allow the collapse of UNRWA… it would be seen as a significant abandonment of Palestine refugees.”

• “The attacks on UNRWA seek to destroy that symbol [of commitment], in the belief that the ending of the Agency would bring an end to that commitment.”

• “UNRWA remains the only entity currently capable of consistently supporting Palestine refugees in Syria, including in camps and informal settlements.”

• “Host countries… have categorically rejected any transition of the Agency’s functions to national systems as unacceptable and unviable.”

• “The General Assembly’s renewal of UNRWA’s mandate has never been accompanied by a parallel commitment to adequate, stable financing.”