Alarm bell: time to wake up, getting late : Ramesh Shrestha

"I do not wish to seem overdramatic, but I can only conclude from the Information that is available to me as Secretary- General, that the Members of the United Nations have perhaps ten years left in which to subordinate their ancient quarrels and launch a global partnership to curb the arms race, to improve the human environment, to defuse the population explosion, and to supply the required momentum to development efforts. If such a global partnership is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control.

- U THANT, 1961-71, United Nations Secretary General

Known but did not want to know

Club of Rome* commissioned a study with researchers from MIT with a team of 17 scientists from six countries (USA, Turkey, Iran, India, Norway and Germany) specialised in different backgrounds to predict the results of exponential economic and population growth with the finite resources of mother nature. The study was funded by the Volkswagen Foundation of Germany. The study used a computer simulation model called World3, developed by Jay Forrester, a Systems Scientist at the MIT lab to predict how the population growth and natural resource consumption interacts over the years with data available since 1900, especially since 1950, following the industrial revolution. The researchers used twelve different scenarios of consumption and growth focusing principally on the physical limits of the planet. The result of this analytical study on the consequences of interaction between human systems and the Earth was presented to the international conference in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro in 1971. The paper was authored by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William Behrens III from MIT on behalf of the Club of Rome. A non-technical version of this study was published in 1972 with the title Limits to Growth.

(* The Club of Rome is a non-profit non-governmental organisation established in Rome in 1968 with one hundred full time members consisting of scientists, diplomats, economists, business leaders from around the world. It was relocated to Winterthur, Switzerland since 1 July 2008.)

The main conclusion of the study in every realistic scenario was that ‘if the present growth trends in the world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and natural resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime in the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.’

The researchers warn that it becomes impossible to sustain further growth in industrial output which could decline in human welfare and decline in population growth. The study went as far as suggesting that human civilization will collapse by the mid 21st century and by the end of 21st century the world population will be comparable to the early 20th century.

Then and now

The above findings were published at a time when the world population was just 3.6 billion and it was long before the spread of uncontrolled capitalism, limitless consumption behaviour, unlimited extraction of natural resources, serious air pollution, irresponsible social media and internet explosion. To add to this the human behaviour has gone totally wild with no respect for each other and to nature as if there is no tomorrow. It is likely that these new variables, aided further by human arrogance - I, me and myself - will continue to accelerate what was predicted by the scientists in their publication, Limits to Growth.

Are we knowingly failing?

Thirty million copies of the original publication, ‘Limits to Growth’ in 37 languages, have been sold worldwide but discussions about it are limited to a select few groups. Since 1972 there seemed enough time to deliberate on the findings of this study to create a safe environment for the future generations and to identify corrective actions, but instead there were severe criticisms largely from the business sector and economists creating doubts and questions. Many people simply criticized this study as extrapolation of the data.

Three economists in the New York Times Book review on 2 April 1972 called this book ‘an empty and misleading work... and little more than polemical fiction’. The reviewers described the book, ‘The Limits to Growth’ not as a rediscovery of the laws of nature but as a rediscovery of the oldest maxim of computer science: ‘Garbage In, Garbage Out’. This NYT book review was actually insulting to say the least. Many critics argued that the study did not give enough credence to human ingenuity and adaptability and that the study ignored humanity’s ability to develop technological solutions to its problems. Many accused the researchers as alarmists.

Continuing to ignore the warning …

Club of Rome continues to provide updates every five years and major revisions published in 20 years, 30 years and 50 years in the form of a book. In twenty year update in 1992 with the title ‘Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future’ the authors suggested that humanity has already overshot the limits of Earth’s support capacity. The authors concluded that ‘we do not have another 30 years to dither; much will have to change if the ongoing overshot is not to be followed by collapse during the twenty-first century.’

President George H.W. Bush said in 1992 ‘Twenty years ago some spoke of limits of growth. But today we now know that growth is the engine of change. Growth is the friend of the environment’. (Limits to Growth: The 30-year update, 2004, pp 204) It was in sharp contrast to the findings of the study.

In 1972 Club of Rome published ‘Limits to Growth’ questioning the sustainability of economic and population growth. Limits to growth estimated that by now we would begin to see declines in food production, population, energy availability and life expectancy. None of these developments has even begun to occur, nor is there any immediate prospect that they will. So, the Club of Rome is wrong… Exxon/Mobile, 2002. (Limits to Growth: The 30-year update, 2004, pp 204)

In 2021 an econometrist and independent sustainability analyst (Ms. Gaya Herrington, University of Amsterdam) reviewed and analysed the data set ‘out of curiosity about the data accuracy’. She came to the same conclusion and made an even more dire conclusion, suggesting that economic growth could end at the end of the current decade and a total economic collapse would come ten years later. In a paper titled ‘Beyond Growth’ the author wrote plainly ‘amidst global slowdown and risks of depressed future growth potentials from climate change, social unrest and geopolitical instability, to name a few, responsible leaders face the possibility that growth will be limited in the future. And only a fool keeps chasing an impossibility’.

The author further stated that the Earth has been terraformed beyond repair due to the excessive emission of greenhouse gases. There will be severe scarcity of mineral resources for the next generation. The environment has been polluted with radioactive materials and heavy metals. According to this study model the ecological and economic collapse could happen by 2040.

Yet, we have politicians, policy makers, planners, and technocrats running around the circle trying to convert dystopia to utopia.

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