Déja vu, Nagorno-Karabakh - What the world loses when another ethnic enclave is erased: Tom McDermott

Trucks arrive in Armenia filled with refugees

As the not so skilled orator and famous baseball player, Yogi Berra, once said, "It's "déja-vu all over again." For me this week, 'déja vu' is not a good feeling, as the 'déja' is Bosnia and former Yugoslavia where I worked as Special Representative through most of the 1990's.

July 1995, Bosnia

Much of the Bosnian war was fought over ethnic enclaves - a town or group of Muslim villages villages in Serb (i.e. Orthodox) controlled areas, Serbian villages in Croatian (i.e. Catholic) territory, Croatians in Muslim areas, etc., etc. Countless tragedies played out as forces of one side or the other would first blockade, shell and finally attempt to overrun enclaves inhabited by people who no longer 'belonged' in the new nation their enemies wanted to create.

Starvation was a key element of the war. As one Bosnian Serb soldier put it, "...how do you get someone to surrender in a war like this? You starve them to death." Indeed, many people in the enclaves did starve, at least unless the occasional UN truck convoys managed to push through the lines.

The worst of the tragedies in Bosnian enclaves was in Srebrenica - a Muslim enclave inside the new nation Serbs wanted to build. Taking the area was a key objective of Serb strategy and for nearly three years the population remained under Serb blockade. Refugees from surrounding areas fled into the city during the same period, swelling the population from fewer than 3,000 to over 50,000.

In April 1995 the UN Security Council had declared Srebrenica a 'safe area under UN protection'. The lightly armed Dutch troops sent to separate and disarm both the Serb attackers and the Muslim defenders succeeded in neither aim. In July the Serbs attacked both the UN force and the Bosnian defenders, easily overrunning the enclave. A day or two later, they separated and systematically murdered 8,000 of the men and boys. Some 23,000 women and young children were taken to prison camps where many died of hunger, rape and mistreatment. In the end, the UN estimated that some 105,000 people living in Srebrenica and surrounding villages died, including 6,000 to 11,000 children.

To say the least, it was not the UN's finest hour. On the evening following the Serb conquest, the commander of the UN force was filmed drinking a toast with the infamous Serb commander and later declared war criminal, General Mladic.

September 2023, Nagorno-Karabakh

The latest tragedy involving an enclave played out last week in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian ethnic enclave inside Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijan army conquered the few remaining bits of the enclave last Wednesday. Much of the enclave's territory had been lost in earlier battles in 2020. The latest conflict brings to an apparent end the 'sometime war' which continued since an Armenian victory over the territory in 1994.

However you might view the long history of conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, or over the roles of their powerful neighbors, Russia and Turkey, the result is a tragedy for the 120,000 or so ethnic Armenians living in Ngorno-Karabakh.

Since December of last year the enclave had been blockaded by Azerbaijan, leaving its people on the verge of starvation and without food and other essentials. The latest stage of the conflict came just at the moment when the region was breathing a sigh of relief. Following a Security Council meeting and extensive press criticism of its blockade, Azerbaijan announced that it would partly open the blockade to allow trucks from Russia and the ICRC to enter the enclave. Instead, claiming a provocation when an Azeri vehicle hit a landmine, Azerbaijan decided to finish off the enclave's defenses and establish full control of the region.

Some 68,000 ethnic Armenians have so far fled across the border to Armenia. Another 50,000 or so could follow soon. UNHCR and UNICEF seem conspicuously absent in efforts to assist the incoming refugees. Among international agencies, only the ICRC is so far visible. Once again, not the UN's finest hour.

From here things could go in several directions. The greatest fear is that Azerbaijan may block the exit of some of the population, in particular men who were of military age during the wars in 1994 and 2020. This could be the first step towards trials and retribution towards those who Azerbaijan sees as traitors or war criminals. Azerbaijan has already arrested the former leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan and has said that he will be tried for treason.

Of course, alternatives are also possible. Under international pressure Azerbaijan could make serious efforts at reconstruction and integration of any Armenians who choose to stay, perhaps even inviting some of those who have fled to return. Past experience, however, tells us that these scenarios seldom come to fruition. Think only of the Palestinians driven out of their lands by Israeli forces in 1948 and subsequent wars. Indeed, a more likely scenario is that Azerbaijan may simply let all of the ethnic Armenians cross to Armenia, never to return.

Mass migration due to fear, loss of land and economic opportunity are also forms of ethnic cleansing, without the massacres we generally associate with that term - but ethnic cleansing, nonetheless.

So far there are no indications yet that Nagorno-Karabakh will become another Srebrenica. It is more like other enclaves I knew in Bosnia, and hundreds of similar enclaves scattered throughout the Balkans and the Middle East - former homes of ethnic minorities who were slowly starved out of existence through blockade, conquest, political isolation, and loss of economic possibilities - all driving an outflow of refugees to safer areas or the migration of younger people to areas of better employment.

Much of the former Ottoman Empire once included successful ethnic enclaves. People were free to live their lives, worship according to their faith, and run their businesses according to both the Empire’s laws and local customs. Jews, Sunni, Shia, Armenians, Druze, Vlachs, Kurds, Albanians, Maronite Christians, Orthodox, Circassians and other minorities all found regions to call their own and made up 'quarters' of districts of major cities like Damascus and Jerusalem. In general, the Empire and its local rulers gave space to communities, and relative freedom to follow their own customs, so long as they did not impinge on others or threaten the security of the province or the Empire. Such agglomerations of communities and enclaves were seen in fact as a source of strength and vitality - a different approach to what we now call 'strength in diversity'.

All this began to fall apart with the rise of European nationalism and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The end of WWI and the divvying up of former Ottoman lands by European states created new nation-states that were intolerant to minority populations. Nationalism became quickly associated with ethnic purity.

Whatever the outcome for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, I feel sad that once again the world has lost an important stitch in its tapestry of ethnic diversity. I feel sad too for the people who have lost so much and will take years again to find their feet. And finally, I feel sad that the UN did not take action earlier, and so far has done so little to help those affected. Once again, not the UN’s finest hour - yes, it's déja vu all over again.

Oh, and that question again - where is UNICEF?

Addendum: A day after posting this complaint about the UN being missing in action, articles have begun to appear quoting the UNHCR Representative in Armenia and UNICEF's Regional Director in Geneva.  I am pleased to see that a response is indeed forming to cope with the influx of refugees.