Report: Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook : Bo Viktor Nylund, Director UNICEF Innocenti

What is in store for children in the coming year?

A message from the Director, UNICEF Innocenti

What is in store for children over the coming 12 months?

For the past three years, we have asked that question as we develop our Global Outlook series. This year, the answers were dominated by the presence of multiple and near-simultaneous shocks in an interdependent world. Many are calling this a “polycrisis”, and it will have an enormous impact on the prospects for children in the next 12 months and beyond.

In our latest edition, we unpack these trends: examining the continuing repercussions of the pandemic, the economic impacts of efforts to tame inflation, food and nutrition insecurity, energy security and the transition to a green future, financing for development, threats to democracy, stresses on multilateralism, and fragmentation of the internet.

Children have much to lose. Geopolitical tension could undermine cooperation on issues vital to children. A poor economic outlook augurs greater child poverty and less investment in nutrition, education and safety. And a bleak environmental outlook poses new and rising threats to children.

The trends we analyze are worrying, but there are positive signs. For example, the pandemic has given us hope of new medical breakthroughs, while rising energy prices have spurred a renewed focus on transitioning to a green future.

For a deeper insight, we turned to young people to understand their views of their future. Our first cohort of Youth Foresight Fellows shared their ideas and visions. We are grateful, too, to colleagues from the programme group, PPD, DPAM and our UNICEF Innocenti research teams for their valuable input.

This report is one of the first fruits of our new office, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight (a merger of UNICEF's former Office of Research – Innocenti and Office of Global Insight and Policy). The ambition of this new office is to tackle the questions of greatest importance for children, both current and emerging. We will drive change through research and foresight on a wide range of child rights issues, sparking global discourse and actively engaging young people in our work.

In short, we aim to provide, for every child, answers to their most pressing concerns.

— Bo Viktor Nylund, Director, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight


This report outlines the polycrisis in which the world finds itself — multiple, simultaneous shocks with strong interdependencies, intensified in an ever-more integrated world — along with eight trends that will shape child rights and well-being in the coming year. 

The trends explored are:

*The pandemic’s harms will continue to be counted — but reforms of health architecture and medical breakthroughs offer hope for children.

*Efforts to tame inflation will have unintended negative effects on child poverty and well-being — requiring policy measures that protect investments for vulnerable families and children.

*Multiple factors will contribute to continued food and nutrition insecurity — with increasing calls for greater climate adaptation and food systems reform to prevent food poverty in children.

*The worsening energy crisis may cause immediate harm to children — but the focus on energy sustainability provides hope for a greener future.

*Unmet needs and underinvestment in children warrant reforms of financial flows to developing countries — while renewed attention on climate finance and debt relief holds promise.

*Threats to democratic rights such as freedom of expression are expected to continue — but social movements, including those led by young people and women, are likely to push back.

*Increasing factionalism will put further stress on multilateralism — but efforts to address children’s and young people’s concerns may offer opportunities to find common ground.

*The internet will continue to fragment and become less global, resulting in further disparities for children — prompting a greater push for openness, fairness and inclusion.