A graphic presentation of interconnected global risks for the next ten years
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks perception survey, 2023-2024
The report also suggests that the global economy will not rebound in the foreseeable future. We often hear of people in passing putting the blame on the pandemic for economic slowdown and other miseries. A careful reading of this report will make one convince that the world will be in the current state of uncertainty and the future risks even if we have not had a pandemic that lasted nearly two years. There are several inter-linked risks emphasized in the figure below (quoted from the report), followed by a brief review of the three most important risks highlighted in the 2024 WEF risk analysis report supplemented with available information from reliable media. (Inset figure)
Societal polarization
Interstate conflicts are not new but the use of sophisticated snooping devises to spy on each other and the targeted killing of opponents have generally degenerated trust between people and states. The end result is the significant degeneration of peace globally. The ongoing wars in Ukraine, Ethiopia, Niger, Mali, Sudan and Israel-Palestine conflict have caused serious repercussions economically and geopolitically. In the coming years, the two main hotspots – Israeli-Palestine issue and Russia-Ukraine war will consume much of geopolitical energy, financial resources and relationships between states and people. Meanwhile the western countries' attempt to support Taiwan’s bid for independence against the People's Republic of China will continue to create serious disturbances and fears in the West Pacific region. All countries commit to a one-China policy yet continue to push full independence of Taiwan with military support. The Taiwan issue further exemplifies the lack of will to embrace peace among western nations.
Escalation of any of these tensions is bound to disrupt global supply chains such as oil trade routes, technological supply chain in East Asia, financial market and political stability. China as the global manufacturing hub for consumer goods, if disrupted, could create chaos everywhere. Should China flex its muscle it would be an outright confrontation between the two giants. There is already a clear global North – South division as a result of the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Involvement of China in any conflict will certainly make the East – West divide an undisputable and irreconcilable global crisis. A bigger unknown is, will these conflicts continue with conventional warfare or will it eventually become a nuclear warfare.
The continued conflicts could paralyse international institutions responsible for ensuring international law and international relations. The International Humanitarian Law (IHL) has been totally ignored as we are observing in the current Israel-Gaza conflict. There are even questions on the credibility of the United Nations raised in several western media. It is likely that societal polarization with continued political disharmony will result in a full-scale global conflict making the IHL and the UN totally irrelevant.
Two thirds of respondents who contributed to this analysis believe that the world will soon face a multipolar or fragmented world order against the will of the current power block. In the next decade, the dissatisfaction in the Global South will grow with the continued dominance of the Global North. It is likely that a group of mid-power states will seek a pivotal influence on the global stage across multiple domains, asserting their power in military, technological and economic field. This outcome is unlikely to be tolerated by the Global North, which could mean a global conflict. Meanwhile the efforts by the Global North to isolate ‘rogue’ states will remain futile exercise. The international effort in peacekeeping will be the victim of this standoff.
On a related issue NATO was planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo in 2024 although there is no new news in the latest NATO communiqué. For the second year running in a row, heads of state of Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea have been invited to participate in the NATO summits. None of these countries are anywhere near the North Atlantic. It is one of the avoidable issues that could pacify societal disharmony in the Asia-Pacific region. It seems as though we are passing through a phase similar to the colonizers bringing civilization and modernity in their colonies mirroring the current Westerners bringing democracy and freedom to the low-and mid-income countries.
Misinformation & disinformation
False information is ranked among the top risks in disrupting our societal peace resulting in political divide. Continued technological advances have made it extremely difficult to rank and attribute the source of information. Meanwhile the media has penetrated deep into our society everywhere including in very remote areas. The mis- and disinformation which is increasingly personalized and targeted to individuals, specific groups and issues generated by humans and AI has become indistinguishable.
Deliberate spread of false information in the media will shift public opinion significantly that distorts the reality, on facts and figures, and erodes trust. At the national level the manipulated and fabricated information will disrupt electoral processes deepening polarised views on issues of common interest resulting in conflict between groups with opposite views, civil unrest and violence. It will also undermine the legitimacy of elected governments with challenges ranging from violent protests to hate crimes against authorities. As a result, the authorities may take extreme measures to fight false information such as censorship in the media, repression of information flow and decline in social justice.
It will result in erosion of rights and trust on the system. The easy access to hardware and software technology and accelerated use of artificial intelligence with facial recognition, voice cloning capability and counterfeit websites with deliberate false messages will play a major role in creating disharmony in the society. No matter how fast the governments can come up with regulatory mechanisms, it will most likely never be able to catch up with the miscreants spreading mis-and disinformation which would harm individuals, effort towards climate activism, ethnic and racial harmony, and even economy.
On many occasions the state authorities themselves are responsible for politically biased mis- and disinformation for political benefits. Almost all global media is under the control of just a few media houses which are largely responsible for spreading mis- and disinformation in the form of polarising narratives, biased reporting, one-sided views and prejudiced analysis for the benefit of the few. As the modern media has no borders and boundaries the negative impacts it creates is felt globally. It has caused and may continue to cause active hostilities, continuing to create unstable global order but those who need to take action seems uninterested.
The application of misinformation and disinformation will kill the idea of truth in our society including in governance with the lack of or with decline in checks and balances. There are not too many investigative media and those that exist are at the risk of significant vulnerabilities due to censorship and other government regulations despite a commitment of freedom of press. The targeted killing of journalists is an example of how truth is burnt and misinformation and disinformation flourishes.
Critical change in Earth’s ecosystem
Negative outcomes of climate change continue to damage the entire Earth’s ecosystem. Human activities and by-products of technological innovations will continue to pose severe risks in altering ecological balance and could very well pass the tipping point catapulting towards 3°c to which the world may not adapt. This change in planetary system is expected to be irreversible and self-perpetuating due to a breaching of a critical climatic threshold. In 2023 the world recorded the warmest temperature in several regions including in the Antarctic region. Extreme heat waves, wildfires, droughts, sea level rise from collapsing of west Antarctic ice sheets, collapse of Greenland, carbon release from thawing permafrost, disruption of ocean currents, atmospheric currents and severe floods are expected to be seen regularly in coming years and decades. The rise in sea temperature will kill coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass. It will result in ecosystem collapse with loss of biodiversity and disrupt agricultural productivity resulting in socioeconomic vulnerability with uncertainties in food supply chain, water and health security ‘within the next decade’.
Roadblocks
A growing concern is that the multi-billionaire industrialist members of the WEF believe that ‘most environmental risks will materialize only over a longer time frame’. It is in sharp contrast to the views and facts & figures presented by the scientists, members of the governments and civil society. Such a rigid position of industrialists will continue to hamper the global efforts of reducing greenhouse gas emission, let alone achieving a carbon neutral position. This dissonance in perceptions between the private sector and other decision-makers could mean loss of time to make necessary progress in climate related interventions.
Societal polarization
Interstate conflicts are not new but the use of sophisticated snooping devises to spy on each other and the targeted killing of opponents have generally degenerated trust between people and states. The end result is the significant degeneration of peace globally. The ongoing wars in Ukraine, Ethiopia, Niger, Mali, Sudan and Israel-Palestine conflict have caused serious repercussions economically and geopolitically. In the coming years, the two main hotspots – Israeli-Palestine issue and Russia-Ukraine war will consume much of geopolitical energy, financial resources and relationships between states and people. Meanwhile the western countries' attempt to support Taiwan’s bid for independence against the People's Republic of China will continue to create serious disturbances and fears in the West Pacific region. All countries commit to a one-China policy yet continue to push full independence of Taiwan with military support. The Taiwan issue further exemplifies the lack of will to embrace peace among western nations.
Escalation of any of these tensions is bound to disrupt global supply chains such as oil trade routes, technological supply chain in East Asia, financial market and political stability. China as the global manufacturing hub for consumer goods, if disrupted, could create chaos everywhere. Should China flex its muscle it would be an outright confrontation between the two giants. There is already a clear global North – South division as a result of the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Involvement of China in any conflict will certainly make the East – West divide an undisputable and irreconcilable global crisis. A bigger unknown is, will these conflicts continue with conventional warfare or will it eventually become a nuclear warfare.
The continued conflicts could paralyse international institutions responsible for ensuring international law and international relations. The International Humanitarian Law (IHL) has been totally ignored as we are observing in the current Israel-Gaza conflict. There are even questions on the credibility of the United Nations raised in several western media. It is likely that societal polarization with continued political disharmony will result in a full-scale global conflict making the IHL and the UN totally irrelevant.
Two thirds of respondents who contributed to this analysis believe that the world will soon face a multipolar or fragmented world order against the will of the current power block. In the next decade, the dissatisfaction in the Global South will grow with the continued dominance of the Global North. It is likely that a group of mid-power states will seek a pivotal influence on the global stage across multiple domains, asserting their power in military, technological and economic field. This outcome is unlikely to be tolerated by the Global North, which could mean a global conflict. Meanwhile the efforts by the Global North to isolate ‘rogue’ states will remain futile exercise. The international effort in peacekeeping will be the victim of this standoff.
On a related issue NATO was planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo in 2024 although there is no new news in the latest NATO communiqué. For the second year running in a row, heads of state of Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea have been invited to participate in the NATO summits. None of these countries are anywhere near the North Atlantic. It is one of the avoidable issues that could pacify societal disharmony in the Asia-Pacific region. It seems as though we are passing through a phase similar to the colonizers bringing civilization and modernity in their colonies mirroring the current Westerners bringing democracy and freedom to the low-and mid-income countries.
Misinformation & disinformation
False information is ranked among the top risks in disrupting our societal peace resulting in political divide. Continued technological advances have made it extremely difficult to rank and attribute the source of information. Meanwhile the media has penetrated deep into our society everywhere including in very remote areas. The mis- and disinformation which is increasingly personalized and targeted to individuals, specific groups and issues generated by humans and AI has become indistinguishable.
Deliberate spread of false information in the media will shift public opinion significantly that distorts the reality, on facts and figures, and erodes trust. At the national level the manipulated and fabricated information will disrupt electoral processes deepening polarised views on issues of common interest resulting in conflict between groups with opposite views, civil unrest and violence. It will also undermine the legitimacy of elected governments with challenges ranging from violent protests to hate crimes against authorities. As a result, the authorities may take extreme measures to fight false information such as censorship in the media, repression of information flow and decline in social justice.
It will result in erosion of rights and trust on the system. The easy access to hardware and software technology and accelerated use of artificial intelligence with facial recognition, voice cloning capability and counterfeit websites with deliberate false messages will play a major role in creating disharmony in the society. No matter how fast the governments can come up with regulatory mechanisms, it will most likely never be able to catch up with the miscreants spreading mis-and disinformation which would harm individuals, effort towards climate activism, ethnic and racial harmony, and even economy.
On many occasions the state authorities themselves are responsible for politically biased mis- and disinformation for political benefits. Almost all global media is under the control of just a few media houses which are largely responsible for spreading mis- and disinformation in the form of polarising narratives, biased reporting, one-sided views and prejudiced analysis for the benefit of the few. As the modern media has no borders and boundaries the negative impacts it creates is felt globally. It has caused and may continue to cause active hostilities, continuing to create unstable global order but those who need to take action seems uninterested.
The application of misinformation and disinformation will kill the idea of truth in our society including in governance with the lack of or with decline in checks and balances. There are not too many investigative media and those that exist are at the risk of significant vulnerabilities due to censorship and other government regulations despite a commitment of freedom of press. The targeted killing of journalists is an example of how truth is burnt and misinformation and disinformation flourishes.
Critical change in Earth’s ecosystem
Negative outcomes of climate change continue to damage the entire Earth’s ecosystem. Human activities and by-products of technological innovations will continue to pose severe risks in altering ecological balance and could very well pass the tipping point catapulting towards 3°c to which the world may not adapt. This change in planetary system is expected to be irreversible and self-perpetuating due to a breaching of a critical climatic threshold. In 2023 the world recorded the warmest temperature in several regions including in the Antarctic region. Extreme heat waves, wildfires, droughts, sea level rise from collapsing of west Antarctic ice sheets, collapse of Greenland, carbon release from thawing permafrost, disruption of ocean currents, atmospheric currents and severe floods are expected to be seen regularly in coming years and decades. The rise in sea temperature will kill coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass. It will result in ecosystem collapse with loss of biodiversity and disrupt agricultural productivity resulting in socioeconomic vulnerability with uncertainties in food supply chain, water and health security ‘within the next decade’.
Roadblocks
A growing concern is that the multi-billionaire industrialist members of the WEF believe that ‘most environmental risks will materialize only over a longer time frame’. It is in sharp contrast to the views and facts & figures presented by the scientists, members of the governments and civil society. Such a rigid position of industrialists will continue to hamper the global efforts of reducing greenhouse gas emission, let alone achieving a carbon neutral position. This dissonance in perceptions between the private sector and other decision-makers could mean loss of time to make necessary progress in climate related interventions.
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Or contact Ramesh at ramesh.chauni@gmail.com
Or contact Ramesh at ramesh.chauni@gmail.com
Ramesh and xUNICEF staff, do I have your permission to distribute this disturbing but helpful article to a university class in the humanitarian field which I am teaching? Everett
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