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| Photo Illustration by Alma Haser for The New York Times |
Title: A New World Order Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready
Summary: Margaret MacMillan argues that the postwar international order is eroding as the United States retreats from its supporting role, international institutions weaken, and conflicts and other global threats intensify. She examines the French and Russian revolutions, Hitler’s rise to power, and Britain’s 1832 Great Reform Act to illustrate the consequences of ignoring instability and the possibility of averting crises through adaptation. She identifies surviving international institutions, treaties, and cooperation among middle powers as foundations for building a new system of international cooperation.
Quotes:
“There is no single pattern for revolutionary change, but those at the summit of a regime often fail to recognize how brittle it is.”
“A world war is not inevitable, but the threat of a catastrophic conflict between big and well-armed powers is closer than it was for decades.”
“But the end of the old system does not have to mean the end of cooperation.”
“There is no single pattern for revolutionary change, but those at the summit of a regime often fail to recognize how brittle it is.”
“A world war is not inevitable, but the threat of a catastrophic conflict between big and well-armed powers is closer than it was for decades.”
“But the end of the old system does not have to mean the end of cooperation.”
The new world order is already here, although its rulers and rules may not be fully settled.
ReplyDeleteThe West’s relative dominance is diminishing fast as other countries gain influence and power. Europe seems unable to recognise that its position cannot be sustained by past achievements and ever more regulations. Influence comes from strong economies, innovation and credible defence. That is not new. That is how it has always been.
China has already changed the balance. India is increasingly influential, alongside other Asian powers. But Asia is not a united bloc. Its countries have competing interests, and some have the same demographic constraints as Europe.
Africa’s expanding population gives it enormous potential. Yet a demographic advantage is just a foundation. Without education, investment and accountable government, more people may not mean more wealth and power.
Russia remains a dangerous spoiler: too strong to ignore, too weak to dominate. Meanwhile, countries in Central and South America may prefer to bargain with different powers.
MacMillan is hopefully right that cooperation remains possible. But institutions must deliver results, build trust and accept the new distribution of power.
Europe's danger may be confusing its values with its influence. The world will not reserve us a seat at the top table out of gratitude for Europe's values.