Yemen - quo vadis? One, Two, or Three States? : Shared by Tom McDermott

The situation in Yemen is confusing to most outsiders, and likely to many 'insiders' as well. We have grown accustomed to news of the Houthi-controlled north and a 'government-controlled' south. 

Yet the reality is far more complicated, as became clear last week when Saudi Arabia bombed the 'government-controlled' port of Mukalla, targeting a UAE arms shipment intended for its proxy forces in the south, the Southern Transitional Council (STC). In theory, forces backed by both the Saudis and the UAE are parts of the same 'government' coalition fighting the Houthis.

Much of the confusion over whether Yemen has a government at all goes back to UN Security Council Resolution 2216 (2015), which backed Yemen's territorial unity and provided the basis for international recognition of a 'transitional' government. At the time the Saudis pushed this resolution through with support of the US and other major powers. 

Now, over ten years later, the situation has changed, with the 'transitional government' holding less and less territory, not just in the north, but also in the south. What remains clear is Saudi determination to maintain a single internationally recognized government of Yemen, while the UAE and its proxy forces want to split the country and return to the pre-1990 situation of two states—one north, one south.

The historical precedent is significant: Yemen was previously divided between 1967 and 1990, when South Yemen (the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) existed as an independent Marxist state following British withdrawal, while North Yemen (the Yemen Arab Republic) emerged from a 1962-1970 civil war in which Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser supported republican forces with as many as 70,000 troops against royalist forces backed by Saudi Arabia.

Over the past month, the STC with UAE support has secured control over 90-95 percent of the populated areas of southern Yemen plus control of oil fields holding 80 percent of Yemen's oil reserves. The STC, founded in 2017 with an explicit separatist agenda to restore South Yemen, called for a 'two-state solution' to the civil war in September 2025.

The dilemma for the international community and for humanitarian agencies is growing. At present, humanitarian aid must navigate a 'three-state' reality—a Houthi-controlled north, a largely UAE-backed STC-controlled south, and a Saudi-supported 'transitional' internationally recognized government that controls very little actual territory.

Tom

Saudi Arabia Bombs UAE Weapons Shipment in Yemen, Threatening Humanitarian Operations as Former Allies Split

Author: William Christou and agencies
Publication: The Guardian
Date: December 30, 2025

Click here for the article

Summary

Saudi vs. UAE

 On December 30th Saudi Arabia bombed what Riyadh said was a weapons shipment for separatists that arrived from the UAE, creating a dangerous new fracture in Yemen's anti-Houthi coalition that threatens to further complicate humanitarian operations in what is already the world's third-worst food insecurity crisis. 

The Saudi strike targeted Yemen's port city of Mukalla, hitting what Saudi Arabia described as a weapons shipment from the UAE meant for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a Yemeni separatist force that has seized control of southern Yemen including key port cities, oil facilities controlling 80 percent of Yemen's reserves, and islands. The strike followed unprecedented territorial gains by UAE-backed forces in recent weeks that angered Riyadh, with the STC taking control in November of most of southern Yemen, some at the expense of Saudi-backed forces.

Yemen's Leadership Council ordered the withdrawal of all UAE forces, the blockade of all land and sea ports for 72 hours. The UAE said it would comply in withdrawing its forces, but it seems doubtful that its support for the STC will lessen, or that the government will be able to take any meaningful action beyond demands. 

The crisis raises fundamental questions about Yemen's future territorial integrity. The STC, founded in 2017 with an explicit separatist agenda, now controls 90-95 percent of populated areas in former South Yemen and in September 2025 called for a "two-state solution" to the civil war. With control of 80 percent of Yemen's oil reserves in Hadramout, an independent southern state appears economically viable. However, Saudi Arabia explicitly prefers a unified Yemen and views Hadramout as critical to its national security given their 425-mile shared border. 

As if the humanitarian challenges were not already more than enough

The split between the two Gulf powers creates profound challenges for humanitarian organizations already operating under catastrophic constraints. Humanitarians must now navigate at least three distinct governing authorities—Houthis in the north, the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia, and the STC backed by the UAE in the south—each imposing different bureaucratic requirements and access restrictions.

The most likely outcome is prolonged de facto partition without international recognition—similar to situations like Somaliland or Northern Cyprus—where the STC administers the south without declaring independence, the Houthis control the north, and a weak government maintains nominal international legitimacy. 

Implications for Humanitarians

This creates maximum uncertainty for humanitarian operations, as aid agencies must negotiate with multiple competing authorities, none of whom have clear international legitimacy or predictable behavior, in an environment where continued violence remains likely.

The Saudi-UAE split specifically threatens to create new displacement flows as fighting potentially resumes, further fragment humanitarian coordination, disrupt aid supply routes through southern ports, increase protection risks for civilians caught between competing forces, and divert attention from Houthi frontlines to intra-coalition fighting. 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that resumption of full-scale fighting in Yemen could destabilize the entire Red Sea area. The war in Yemen has killed an estimated 377,000 people according to the UN, and nearly half the population faces hunger.

 
Quotes

"There is no thinking about withdrawal. It is unreasonable for the landowner to be asked to leave his own land. The situation requires staying and reinforcing. We are in a defensive position, and any movement toward our forces will be responded to by our forces." - Anwar Al-Tamimi, STC spokesperson

"I expect a calibrated escalation from both sides. The UAE-backed STC is likely to respond by consolidating control. At the same time, the flow of weapons from the UAE to the STC is set to be curtailed following the port attack, particularly as Saudi Arabia controls the airspace." - Mohammed al-Basha, Yemen expert and founder of the Basha Report

"Seventy per cent of households do not have enough food to meet daily needs – this is the highest rate ever recorded. Detaining humanitarian staff does not help the people of Yemen. It does not feed the hungry, heal the sick, nor protect those displaced by floods or fighting. The people of Yemen, wherever they may live, must receive the humanitarian aid that they need." - Tom Fletcher, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator

"Yemen is both a mirror and a magnifier of the region's volatility. Behind the bleak humanitarian data there are millions of people in Yemen whose lives are in danger. Families cannot feed their children, hospitals are closing their doors, and preventable diseases are spreading. Humanitarian aid must never be instrumentalised, blocked or retained." - Hans Grundberg, UN Special Envoy for Yemen / Hadja Lahbib, EU Commissioner for Preparedness and Crisis Management