Six UN Peacekeepers Dead as Sudan War Threatens Oil Fields and South Sudan Stability : Tom McDermott

Attack on UN Forces in South Kordofan Poses New Risks of Sudan's Civil War Spreading into South Sudan

Sudan's civil war has become increasingly difficult to follow, as battle lines shift rapidly between the RSF paramilitary and the Sudanese Army. The latest fighting centers on oil fields straddling the Sudan-South Sudan border—resources critical to both countries' survival. The country that was divided in two in 2011 now faces a potential partition into three: western Sudan controlled by the RSF, South Sudan, and a diminished Sudan in the east.

Many UNICEF staff have worked in South Kordofan since a water programme office opened there in the late 1970s. Many others have worked further south in Abyei, a major flashpoint between northern and southern Sudan for decades.

Ownership of the area around Abyei has been contested between northern and southern tribes for centuries. When South Sudan gained independence in July 2011, Abyei was deliberately excluded from the border agreement due to continued tensions over the oil-rich area. A promised referendum on whether it should join the new nation never took place. The United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) was established in June 2011, just weeks before independence, with nearly 4,000 peacekeepers providing a fragile buffer ever since.

UNISFA established its logistics headquarters in Kadugli, capital of South Kordofan state. The city has been under joint RSF-SPLM-N siege for 18 months, and famine was declared there in November 2025.

On December 13, three drones struck the UN base in Kadugli, killing six Bangladeshi peacekeepers and wounding eight others. The attack shocked the humanitarian community and raised urgent questions about whether Sudan's civil war might spread into South Sudan.

Border of Sudan with South Sudan, Darfur to the West, and new focus of war Kadugli and Abyei 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the "horrific" attack, warning it "may constitute war crimes under international law." UN officials noted the operational environment in Kadugli "has become simply untenable."

The attack destroyed the UN fuel depot—possibly the primary target. Without fuel, the UN unit is immobilized. The destruction of UNISFA's logistics infrastructure could force the mission to withdraw from Kordofan, enabling RSF capture of Kadugli.

Following their October 2025 capture of el-Fasher—the Sudanese army's last Darfur stronghold—RSF forces have pushed eastward into oil-rich Kordofan. Analysts describe Kordofan as "Sudan's economic backbone," vital for agricultural, livestock, and petroleum resources. RSF control of Kordofan could solidify a west-east partition of Sudan or enable renewed threats to Khartoum.

Like Abyei, the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan have been contested for decades. Although geographically in the north, many Nuba people fought alongside southern rebels during Sudan's civil war and sought self-determination. The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement gave South Sudan the right to vote on independence but offered the Nuba Mountains only an ill-defined "popular consultation" process that would allow them to voice opinions on governance but not determine their own future.

The promised consultation never took place. In June 2011, just before the independence of South Sudan, the governor appointed by Khartoum suspended the process, and fighting erupted between Sudanese forces and the newly formed Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). The region has remained largely under SPLM-N control ever since. The RSF's February 2025 alliance with SPLM-N gave the paramilitary effective control over the Nuba Mountains, enabling the joint siege of Kadugli.

The conflict has already begun spilling across the border into South Sudan. In December 2025, RSF forces captured the strategic Heglig oilfield near the Sudan-South Sudan border, forcing Sudanese army units to retreat into South Sudan. South Sudan's army deployed to secure the facility, marking a dangerous expansion of the war.

South Sudan itself remains deeply unstable. The 2018 peace agreement that ended its civil war is on the verge of collapse. The UN estimates 300,000 people fled South Sudan in 2025 alone, while 7.7 million face acute food insecurity.

The presence of RSF elements in northern Abyei and South Sudanese forces in southern Abyei creates a powder keg for broader regional conflict. South Sudan depends almost entirely on oil revenues. Disruptions have devastated its economy, contributing to inflation, currency collapse, and widespread hardship. An RSF advance into Abyei would directly threaten additional oil infrastructure and give the RSF leverage over both countries' oil sectors.

The Security Council renewed UNISFA's mandate in November 2025 for another year but warned that future extensions depend on "demonstrable progress," including creating a joint police force for Abyei and achieving complete demilitarization. Yet the Abyei political process has been stalled since April 2023. The Abyei Joint Oversight Committee has not convened since 2017.

The December 13 drone attack on UNISFA peacekeepers represents far more than an isolated tragedy. It signals a cascade of strategic threats: the fall of Kadugli to RSF forces, an advance into disputed Abyei, control of oil fields, and the spread of Sudan's civil war into South Sudan's fragile peace.