Nukes Again in Belarus : Shared by Kul Gautam

This is ominous.

Under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, three countries – Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances. But Belarus, with Russia's help has quietly given up on the Budapest Memorandum and re-armed with tactical nuclear weapons – an apparent quid pro quo for allowing Russia to use Belarus territory in its February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine.

Kul

Nuclear weapons in Belarus: What we Know

Olga Karach

22 November 2024

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Summary

Belarus voluntarily gave up the Soviet nuclear arsenal on its soil in the 1990s, acceded to the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state (1993), and completed the withdrawal of all warheads by November 1996—backed by political security assurances in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

That posture shifted after the 2020 crackdown and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A February 2022 constitutional change removed Belarus’s nuclear-free commitment, enabling Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Belarus from 2023 onward.

Agreements signed by Minsk and Moscow paved the way for storage and operation of TNWs (likely Iskander-M warheads and aerial bombs for Su-25/Su-30). Russia retains control over the warheads, while Minsk has signaled willingness to use them. Rail movement logs and secrecy measures indicate multiple consignments of specialized cargo to hubs such as Prudok and military unit 94017 in 2023–2024.

Karach argues the deployment increases regional escalation risks and makes Belarus a “hostage” to Russia’s nuclear strategy, undermining sovereignty. She calls for Belarus to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to restore a credible non-nuclear status and re-enter the international arena as a responsible state.

Quotes

“Belarus became the first State to voluntarily renounce the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons… The withdrawal… was fully completed in November 1996.”

“On February 27, 2022… [the] Constitution [was amended], removing… ‘The Republic of Belarus aims to make its territory a nuclear-free zone and the state a neutral state.’”

“We received missiles and bombs from Russia. The bomb is three times more powerful than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

“For Belarus, this decision has brought more threats than benefits… the country has found itself in the position of a ‘hostage’ of Russia’s nuclear strategy.”