South Asia - a twilight zone: Ramesh Shrestha

After reading Nuzhat's column including the links she shared and a number of articles appeared thereafter with theories of invisible and some not so invisible hands in internal affairs of Bangladesh, it is not unimaginable to think of South Asia, home to one quarter of the world population, as a twilight zone dominated by dynastic rule, elected authoritarians, a full-blown nepotism, political assassinations and corruption. What happened in Bangladesh is the latest episode of these events in the region, which may not be the last. With India, aspiring to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council and China, already a permanent member of UN Security Council while not considered part of South Asia but shares common borders with four of the seven South Asian countries, the interest of major powers in this region with their veiled shadow is unavoidable like twilight in the entire landmass of Asia.

Whether or not there were or continues to have external influence or even outright interference in internal affairs of South Asian countries which may even lead to regime change is of interest to everyone. With the demise of independent journalism, it is up to the readers to draw their own conclusion depending on their source of information. Besides the western powers, India and China have their own aspirations in the region. India, since its creation with the departure of the British in August 1947 continues to cast its unwanted shadow on the internal affairs of all its neighbours, while promising to live by the ideals of 'pancha shela' - peaceful coexistence, mutual respect, non-aggression, non-interference and equality (India's Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs Volume 34, No 3). There are many Indian politicians and nationalists dreaming of reviving the mythic idea of Akhanda Bharat which not only includes the current landmass of South Asia (Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) but even includes Afghanistan, Myanmar and Tibet; wish them luck! A mural hung in June 2023 in the Indian Parliament which shows part of Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh raised serious objections from India's neighbours. While continuing to export ammunition to Israel, a recent visit by Modi to Israel on 5-6 July shows the true colour of the Indian government's priorities, alliances and aspirations.

Below is a superficial summary of South Asian tragedy

Bangladesh: East Pakistan was created like an ectopic pregnancy, far away from the mainland Pakistan while the British left the region in August 1947. It was violently separated in 1971 with India playing the role of a midwife to create Bangladesh. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman the leader of sovereign Bengali people and became the Prime Minister and President intermittently while changing the constitution. He was assassinated on 15 August 1975 in a coup d'état. His daughter Sheikh Hasina later became the tenth PM of Bangladesh from June 1996 till July 2001 and again from January 2009 till August 2024 when she fled the country following violent street protests.

Ziaur Rehman, a war hero of Bangladeshi independence was the sixth president of Bangladesh who was assassinated on 30 May 1981. His spouse Begum Khalida Zia became the 9th PM of Bangladesh in March 1991 till March 1996 and again from June 2001 to October 2006. She was awarded an 18-year prison sentence for corruption in 2018 by Sheikh Hasina. For the last few decades Bangladeshi politics has been a violent taekwondo match between these two women politicians who inherited their political power from a dead husband and a dead father ruled Bangladesh for 30+ years of Bangladesh's 53 years of independence.

Pakistan: Julfikar Bhutto was the 4th President of Pakistan from December 1971 to August 1973 and the 9th Prime Minister of Pakistan from August 1973 to July 1977 with a new constitution. He was deposed by military coup d'état in July 1997 by General Zia-ul Haq charging him with treason. He was hanged in a prison on 4th April 1979. Bhutto's daughter Benazir Bhutto was the 11th and the 13th Prime Minister of Pakistan from December 1988 to August 1990 and October 1993 to November 1996. She was assassinated on 27th December 2007 during an election campaign. Bhutto's husband Asif Ali Zardari became the 11th and the 14th President of Pakistan from September 2008 to September 2013 and 10 March 2024 - till to-date. Governance of Pakistan in the hands of the Bhutto family for 17 years and counting.

Other political violence that reached higher offices include 10th President Pervez Musharaaf who was in office from June 2001 to October 2007 and from November 2007 till August 2008. He went on exile to the United Kingdom in 2008 to avoid impeachment, then returned to Pakistan in 2013 then absconded to Dubai and was awarded a death penalty in 2019. He died in February 2023 in Dubai.

The 14th and 20th Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was charged with kidnapping, attempted murder, hijacking, terrorism and tax evasion. His name also appeared in Panama papers. He was sentenced for 14 years in prison. He went on exile to Saudi Arabia and was promised not to engage in politics for 21 years. Since then, he has been back and forth between Saudi, Pakistan and London.

India: India has had 14 Prime Ministers since the departure of the British 77 years ago. Out of this Jawaharlal Nehru the first PM of India, his daughter Indira Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi ruled India for 38 years. In addition to being Prime Minister, they also concurrently held a combination of the ministerial portfolios such as Defense, External Affairs, Information & Communications, Home Affairs, Finance, Tourism and Civil Aviation. Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her two Sikh bodyguards for her actions against Sikh militants hiding in Sikh holy temple. The Sikh militants' demand was for more autonomy for the Sikh minority.

Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by a female suicide bomber during his election rally. The suicide bomber was a member of Tamil separatist movement in Sri Lanka. It was alleged that the Indian Peacekeeping forces deployed by him in Sri Lanka had committed numerous crimes against Sri Lankan Tamils. The killing of Rajiv Gandhi was interpreted as a revenge by the Tamil separatists.

Maldives: Maldives was ruled by Maumoon Gayoom for 30 years and his half-brother Abdulla Yamin for five years. In September 2015 there was an assassination attempt on Abdulla Yamin while he was traveling in a Presidential Yacht. There were conflicting reports of assassination plot and eventually a number of senior government officials, including the vice president and a few soldiers were found guilty and charged with treason and sentenced to jail. In December 2018, soon after losing re-election in November, Abdulla Yamin was charged with corruption and sentenced to 11 years in prison. The fourth President of Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, first democratically elected president who defeated autocratic President Maumoon Gayoom in 2008 escaped an assassination attempt in May 2021 while he was functioning as Speaker of the Parliament. It was blamed on the Islamic extremists.

Sri Lanka: Solomon West Bandaranaike was the fourth Prime Minister of Sri Lanka from 1956 to 1959. On 25th September he was assassinated by a Buddhist monk in September 1959. His spouse Sirimavo Bandaranaike became the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka from 1960 to 1965, 1970 to 1977 and from1994 to 2000, while her daughter Chandrika Kumaratunga was the President of Sri Lanka. Chandrika Kumaratunga was the Prime Minister from August till September 1994 and became President from November 1994 till November 2005, with the new constitution. Sirimavo Bandaranaike was the world's first woman Prime Minister. Bandaranaike family (father, spouse, daughter) were the Heads of Government and Heads of State for 33 years.

This political family was replaced by Mahindra Rajapaksa. He was the Prime Minister from 2004 to 2005 and then President of Sri Lanka from 2005 to 2015 while also holding the portfolio of the Ministry of Finance. He again became PM in 2018, 2019 to 2022 while also holding the portfolio of the Ministry of Finance. His younger brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa became the President from November 2019 till July 2022. While he was working as Secretary of Defence, there was an assassination attempt in 2006 by the Tamil separatists. He went on exile to Singapore via Maldives on 13th July 2022 after a massive public protest following the economic crisis in the country while he was the President.

Ranil Wickremesinghe was the 10th Prime Minister from May 1993- August 1994, and December 2001 to April 2004 and January 2015 to October 2018; December 2018 to November 2019 and became the 9th President 12 May 2022 – to-date. He is the nephew of the 7th Prime Minister of Sri Lanka and the second President, former President J.R. Jayawardene from February 1978 to January 1989.

Nepal: Nepal was ruled by more than ten different dynasties for over a thousand years. The last dynasty to rule unified Nepal was the Shah dynasty which lasted 240 years (ended with violent protest in 2008). Within this period Nepal was ruled by hereditary Prime Ministers for 104 years while keeping the Shah Kings confined within the realms of the Royal Palace. There were two massacres within the confines of Royal palaces; first in 23rd September 1846 and the second in June 2001 in which 11 Royal Family members were allegedly shot dead by the Crown Prince including the King and the Queen. Nepal had a Constitutional Monarchy from 1990 till 2008. Communism despite being allergic to democratic governments, Maoist movement in Nepal had full support of India and the Western powers in dethroning Monarchy in 2008. Since then, Nepal is (mis)governed by a joint coalition of three political parties with virtually no opposition political party.

Considering this history of South Asia, it is clear that South Asia has been a bastion of dynastic rule, political violence and assassinations for decades. Will it continue in the same path while promoting democracy? Who knows!