Which Countries Are Most Exposed to US Aid Cuts : Ian Mitchell and Sam Hughes / Center for Global Development
Article shared by Niloufar Pourzand
A gruesome graph released prior to the Munich Security Conference listed 23 countries that will lose more than 1% of their national income if — despite a federal judge’s order — the USAID funding freeze lasts for a full year. Eight countries face a hit of 3% or more.
Summary
The future of US foreign aid remains uncertain under the second Trump administration, with a freeze on USAID funds and staff repatriation raising concerns about the US withdrawing as a lead aid provider. If the freeze continues for a year, 23 economies would experience a loss exceeding 1% of their Gross National Income (GNI), with eight countries suffering a devastating 3% or more impact. Many low- and lower-middle-income countries stand to lose over a fifth of their total foreign aid.
Other donor nations, particularly Germany, Canada, Japan, and Sweden, are urged to step up, while countries like China, Spain, and the UK should accelerate their planned increases in aid. Without intervention, the most vulnerable populations will face worsening poverty, malnutrition, and instability.
Historically, the US has been the largest absolute donor, with a strong focus on the poorest countries. The most exposed nations—such as South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Afghanistan—heavily rely on USAID, mainly for emergency responses and critical health services.
While some countries might step in, urgent action is needed to reorient aid budgets and prevent the severe humanitarian consequences of a prolonged US aid freeze.
A gruesome graph released prior to the Munich Security Conference listed 23 countries that will lose more than 1% of their national income if — despite a federal judge’s order — the USAID funding freeze lasts for a full year. Eight countries face a hit of 3% or more.
Which Countries Are Most Exposed to US Aid Cuts; And What Other Providers Can Do
Click here for the article and to view the chart more clearly.Summary
The future of US foreign aid remains uncertain under the second Trump administration, with a freeze on USAID funds and staff repatriation raising concerns about the US withdrawing as a lead aid provider. If the freeze continues for a year, 23 economies would experience a loss exceeding 1% of their Gross National Income (GNI), with eight countries suffering a devastating 3% or more impact. Many low- and lower-middle-income countries stand to lose over a fifth of their total foreign aid.
Other donor nations, particularly Germany, Canada, Japan, and Sweden, are urged to step up, while countries like China, Spain, and the UK should accelerate their planned increases in aid. Without intervention, the most vulnerable populations will face worsening poverty, malnutrition, and instability.
Historically, the US has been the largest absolute donor, with a strong focus on the poorest countries. The most exposed nations—such as South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Afghanistan—heavily rely on USAID, mainly for emergency responses and critical health services.
While some countries might step in, urgent action is needed to reorient aid budgets and prevent the severe humanitarian consequences of a prolonged US aid freeze.
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